Russian aircraft carried out two provocative operations on Friday over the Baltic Sea. The two incidents, separated by only a few hours, have resulted in increased readiness of NATO fighters in the area and in Estonia requesting emergency consultations under Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The first incident involved three Russian MiG-31 fighters, which entered Estonian airspace around 10 a.m. local time. The MiG-31 is a fourth-generation fighter reputed, at least by the Russians, to be the fastest fighter in the world. It can carry the nuclear-capable Kh-47M2 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile. The flight approached from over the Gulf of Finland and was intercepted by Finnish Air Force fighters near Vaindloo Island, about 124 miles from Tallinn, the capital of Estonia. The Russians lingered in the area for approximately 12 minutes before the arrival of Italian F-35s under NATO's Baltic Air Policing mission, with support from Finnish and Swedish jets.
Serious escalation on NATO's eastern flank.
— Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 (@jurgen_nauditt) September 19, 2025
Three russian MiG-31 fighters (heavy interceptors capable of being equipped with hypersonic Kinzhal missiles) violated Estonian airspace and approached the capital, Tallinn, to within approximately 5 nautical miles (approximately 9… https://t.co/nL0VXZ8fxx pic.twitter.com/JR2OrXmR6t
The map shows the flight path of three Russian MiG-31s that violated Estonian airspace near Vaindloo island on 19 Sept. They remained for nearly 12 minutes with transponders off, no radio contact. NATO Baltic Air Policing F-35s responded. Russia’s 4th airspace violation this year pic.twitter.com/LPsPUoFtHq
— Estonian Defence Forces | Eesti Kaitsevägi (@Kaitsevagi) September 20, 2025
"This is unprecedentedly brazen," Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna declared, summoning Russia's charge d'affaires in protest. "Russia has violated our airspace four times this year alone, but sending three fighters this deep is a direct challenge to our sovereignty." Estonia's government invoked Article 4 of the NATO treaty Saturday, triggering urgent consultations among the 32 members on bolstering defenses. Prime Minister Kristen Michal emphasized the need for "rapid political and economic pressure" on Moscow. This is the Estonian Prime Minister:
This morning, 3 Russian Mig-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace.
— Kristen Michal (@KristenMichalPM) September 19, 2025
NATO fighters responded and the Russian planes were forced to flee.
Such violation is totally unacceptable. The Government of Estonia has decided to request NATO Article 4 consultations.
NATO spokesperson Allison Hart labeled the breach "reckless," confirming alliance jets "responded immediately."
https://t.co/qrePPULuGv pic.twitter.com/oenJRdQNtY
— SHAPE - NATO Allied Command Operations (@SHAPE_NATO) September 19, 2025
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, a former Estonian premier, called it an "extremely dangerous provocation."
Today's violation of Estonia's airspace by Russian military aircraft is an extremely dangerous provocation.
— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) September 19, 2025
This marks the third such violation of EU airspace in days and further escalates tensions in the region.
The EU stands in full solidarity with Estonia (1/2)
Moscow denied that anything of the sort happened. According to TASS, Russia's Defense Ministry insisted the MiG-31s were on a "scheduled flight" from Karelia to Kaliningrad, Russia's Baltic exclave, over "neutral waters" more than three kilometers from Vaindloo. "The aircraft did not deviate from the agreed path and complied with international rules.”
Just hours later, the Polish Border Guard revealed two unidentified Russian fighter jets executed a low-altitude "buzz" over the Petrobaltic oil and gas platform. The flyover breached the installation's protected safety zone in Warsaw's exclusive economic zone, prompting alerts to the armed forces and maritime authorities.
BREAKING:
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) September 19, 2025
Two Russian fighter jets have performed a low pass (around 150 m) over the Poland’s Petrobaltic platform for oil and gas in the Baltic Sea.
The low pass violated the platform’s safety zone. The Polish Armed Forces have been placed on alert. pic.twitter.com/pBnILEbDEb
These two incidents come days after some 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace from Belarus despite Russia saying they strayed from an attack on western Ukraine. This also caused Poland to ask for Article 4 consultations.
RELATED:
Despite President Trump writing off the massive incursion of Polish airspace by Russian drones as a mistake (Is Trump Pulling the Plug on His Role in Ending the Russia-Ukraine War? – RedState), it is obvious to even the most casual observer that this sequence of events is anything but a mistake.
The drones sent into Poland were sent by the route an air attack against Poland would follow. They were mostly decoy drones, and the exercise was calculated to map Polish air defense radar systems, test their ranges, and test the reaction time of the Polish Air Force. Friday's expedition had the same objectives. The MiGs were equipped to be non-threatening so as not to escalate the interception into a dogfight.
The Russian incursion of Estonian airspace with 3 x MiG-31 today was a deliberate provocation to sow doubt and confusion amongst NATO nations. Today these aircraft were only armed with air-to-air missiles (pic 1), but tomorrow it could be something more sinister (pic 2). 🧵1/5 pic.twitter.com/56ZCqS029b
— Greg Bagwell (@gregbagwell) September 19, 2025
Plus, the Russians sent in one of their most radar-visible aircraft.
Just so we’re all on the same page here. There is nothing accidental about this incursion. Using MIG-31 was a deliberate ploy, because it has a large radar cross section. What is Russia’s game plan? As noted elsewhere, Putin is changing the narrative. He wants people to believe… https://t.co/bruRgfUkzX
— Nicholas Drummond (@nicholadrummond) September 19, 2025
Again, they were mapping air defense radar coverage of the Gulf of Finland and the eastern Baltic and testing NATO reaction and reaction times.
This was also a political move to further isolate Europe, as President Trump sends repeated signals that the Europeans had better learn to fend for themselves.
Not only were the Russians out to rattle cages in Tallinn, they were sending a message to the Finns.
Russia laying groundwork for aggression against Finland
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) September 19, 2025
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Kremlin is conducting a coordinated information campaign against Finland, echoing the rhetoric that preceded the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The campaign's… pic.twitter.com/pKYa9oLsEG
As I've pointed out on multiple occasions, people who are putting a benign gloss on Putin's activities because "he wouldn't invade Western Europe" are simply dumb or Russian stooges. Russia pioneered the use of hybrid war in Ukraine in 2014, eventually injecting Russian Army regulars into what had been a civil war. I think all three Baltic States, particularly Latvia, are vulnerable to a Russian military intervention in the guise of local "resistance" forces to defend a sizeable and totally uninterested in assimilation Russian population from "oppression." This would be a casus belli very similar to Russia's "defense" of Russian speakers in Donbas; see How Putin Dismembers NATO Without Firing A Shot. A Scenario From the Cold War.
Because Putin hasn't received any reaction beyond mean words, he is continuing the path of escalation.
Perhaps the launching of drones into Romanian and Polish airspace and the two incidents from Friday will finally push Europe to fully focus on what is an existential crisis for the EU and for NATO: Russian adventurism and expansionism.
Moscow thinks it can keep its war going.
— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) September 19, 2025
We are making sure it pays the price for it.
Today, we present our 19th sanctions package. Every sanction reduces the Kremlin’s ability to wage war.
We won’t stop putting pressure on Russia until it ends its war.
A new round of sanctions seems sure to be imposed on Russia in the very near future; EU hammers Putin and charms Trump by targeting China, India in new Russia sanctions.
There is also the possibility that Russian aircraft in NATO airspace may be met with deadly force.
In 2015, Turkey reacted to a Russian violation of its airspace by shooting down a Russian strike fighter.
A reminder that it took Turkey 17 seconds to shoot down a Russian Su-24 in 2015. https://t.co/Yrext9aNLl pic.twitter.com/wM8pJv52kY
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 19, 2025
Lithuania's Defense Minister left no doubt that the Turkish incident was involved in NATO's Article 4 consultations.
Three russian fighter jets over Tallinn is one more hard proof that #EasternSentry is long due.
— Dovilė Šakalienė (@DSakaliene) September 19, 2025
NATOs border in the North East is being tested for a reason.
We need to mean business.
PS. Türkiye set an example 10 years ago.
Some food for thought.
It is crunch time for the EU and for NATO. The next Russian incursion needs to be met with overwhelming force, or they might as well fold their tent and slink away to Siberia.
RedState is your leading source for news and views on administration, politics, culture, and conservatism. If you appreciate our reporting and commentary, please consider becoming a member and supporting our efforts. Use promo code FIGHT to get 60% off your membership.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member