President Trump handed an ultimatum to NATO members Saturday morning: either get serious about ending the war caused by Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine or count the U.S. out. Using a "truth" from his Truth Social platform to lay down the law, President Trump said, "If NATO does as I say, the WAR will end quickly, and all of those lives will be saved! If not, you are just wasting my time, and the time, energy, and money of the United States."
A LETTER SENT BY PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP TO ALL NATO NATIONS AND, THE WORLD: “I am ready to do major Sanctions on Russia when all NATO Nations have agreed, and started, to do the same thing, and when all NATO Nations STOP BUYING OIL FROM RUSSIA. As you know, NATO’S commitment to WIN has been far less than 100%, and the purchase of Russian Oil, by some, has been shocking! It greatly weakens your negotiating position, and bargaining power, over Russia. Anyway, I am ready to “go” when you are. Just say when? I believe that this, plus NATO, as a group, placing 50% to 100% TARIFFS ON CHINA, to be fully withdrawn after the WAR with Russia and Ukraine is ended, will also be of great help in ENDING this deadly, but RIDICULOUS, WAR. China has a strong control, and even grip, over Russia, and these powerful Tariffs will break that grip. This is not TRUMP’S WAR (it would never have started if I was President!), it is Biden’s and Zelenskyy’s WAR. I am only here to help stop it, and save thousands of Russian and Ukrainian lives (7,118 lives lost last week, alone. CRAZY!). If NATO does as I say, the WAR will end quickly, and all of those lives will be saved! If not, you are just wasting my time, and the time, energy, and money of the United States. Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.”
I will admit to being a skeptic of President Trump's approach to ending this war. Not only has Trump allowed Russian advocates, like Elbridge Colby, to be brought into the government at high levels, but he has also given Putin a virtually non-ending series of deadlines, all of which have been ignored by Putin, and none have brought consequence. The fact that he calls this war "Biden’s and Zelenskyy’s WAR," without mentioning the guy who actually started it, is telling.
The fixation on oil, as I see it, is an impossible condition. Hungary's Viktor Orban and Slovakia's Robert Fico are political allies of Putin. These two countries have insisted on buying Russian oil and gas at pre-war levels. This gives them a veto over any NATO or UN decision requiring unanimous action. When Ukraine hit a pumping station for Russia's oil pipeline that serves Hungary, Orban had a cow and Trump sent a note to Orban saying he was not happy with the Ukrainian strike.
An initial strike of the pipeline happened Aug. 13, which prompted large fires, but the pipeline was fixed by Aug. 19, according to Politico EU. On Friday, Ukraine struck again.
“Hungary supports Ukraine with electricity and petrol, in return, they bomb pipeline that supply us. Very unfriendly move! We wish President Trump every success in his pursuit of peace,” wrote Hungarian President Viktor Orbán, a staunch Russian ally.
Trump replied to this note saying, “Viktor – I do not like hearing this. I am very angry about it. Tell Slovakia. You are my great friend.”
On Friday, Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs Péter Szijjártó and Slovakian Foreign Minister Juraj Blanár sent a letter to the European Commission. They are demanding protection of critical infrastructure.
“Given that in the past years, the EU and its Member States have provided hundreds of billions of Euros worth of support to Ukraine, we find Ukraine’s actions, which severely threaten the energy security of Hungary and Slovakia, completely unacceptable,” reads the letter.
Other actions also indicate Trump is done with attempting to broker a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, and maybe with NATO. Earlier this week, Russia launched a drone swarm into Poland
BACKGROUND:
Polish Air Force Engages Russian Drones; Key Polish Airport Shut for 'Unplanned Military Activity'
Poland Invokes Article 4 of the NATO Treaty Over Drone Invasion; Russia Says Nothing Happened
When asked about it, President Trump insisted it could've been a mistake. "It could've been a mistake." He said. "It could've been a mistake. Regardless, I'm not happy about anything having to do with that whole situation. But, hopefully, it's going to come to an end.
REPORTER: What's your reaction to Russia's drone incursion into Poland?
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 11, 2025
TRUMP: It could've been a mistake pic.twitter.com/lPNIHHnEjE
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk made it very clear that there was no chance that 19 drones crossing into Poland from Belarus could be called a mistake.
We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn’t. And we know it.
— Donald Tusk (@donaldtusk) September 12, 2025
We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn’t. And we know it.
Poland's Foreign Minister echoed that message.
Nie, to nie była pomyłka. https://t.co/PpVmHwoBc8
— Radosław Sikorski 🇵🇱🇪🇺 (@sikorskiradek) September 11, 2025
If you aren't fluent in Polish, he said, "No, that wasn't a mistake."
He was a little stronger on his Fox News interview on Friday.
🗣️ What are you gonna do about Putin? Because we just saw these drones in Poland.
— NSTRIKE (@NSTRIKE1231) September 12, 2025
🇺🇸 Trump: I'm not gonna defend anybody but they were actually knocked down and they fell. But you should not be close to Poland anyway.
Trump says his patience with Putin is "running out fast." pic.twitter.com/cBERjY94OF
What are you gonna do about Putin? Because we just saw these drones in Poland.
Trump: I'm not gonna defend anybody but they were actually knocked down and they fell. But you should not be close to Poland anyway.
Trump says his patience with Putin is "running out fast."
Even the modest progress Trump had accomplished, which was getting low-level talks going between Russia and Ukraine, has fallen apart. Only this week, Putin's spokesman Dmitry "Pornstache" Peskov announced that Russia was halting all negotiations with Ukraine, "Even as our negotiators have the opportunity to communicate via these channels, rather, we can state that this communication has been paused." Without a continuation of staff level talks, it is hard to see what rolling out the red carpet for Putin in Anchorage accomplished.
This was foreshadowed in JD Vance's August 24, "Meet the Press" interview.
US Vice President JD Vance:
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 24, 2025
The Russians don't want a ceasefire for complicated reasons. We of course have pushed for a ceasefire, but again, we don't control what Russia does.
If we did, the war would have been over seven months. pic.twitter.com/aJ1QU6l6yR
If you look at the way the Russians have conducted themselves, they don't want a ceasefire. They don't want a ceasefire for complicated reasons. We, of course, have pushed for a ceasefire. But again, we don't control what Russia does. If we did, the war would've been over seven months ago.
The biggest sign that Trump is done trying to mediate an end to the war came yesterday when the administration withdrew sanctions on Belarus's national air carrier Belavia.
BREAKING: Donald Trump has lifted US sanctions on Belarus’ state airline Belavia.
— Brian McDonald (@27khv) September 11, 2025
Direct flights from Minsk to the United States are set to resume, following talks in Minsk between President Alexander Lukashenko and Trump’s envoy John Cole. pic.twitter.com/QQHUJy6LVZ
This is not trivial. There is little functional difference between Russia and Belarus. They conduct joint military exercises.
This is NATO’s choke point — the Suwałki Gap.
— Shaun Pinner (@olddog100ua) September 13, 2025
Russia’s joint military drills with Belarus and drones flying into Poland aren’t careless accidents, they’re deliberate provocations.
This is as close to WW3 as we’ve ever been.
Remember when Russia swore it wouldn’t invade Ukraine? https://t.co/boGaYv1S11 pic.twitter.com/VcDyXEF9ps
They are part of a politico-economic agreement called the Union State, which aims, eventually, to integrate Belarus into the Russian Federation.
Removing sanctions on Belavia allows it to buy new aircraft and Boeing aircraft parts that will inevitably end up in Russia. It also provides an easy, above-board way for Russia to bust existing sanctions regimes by shipping forbidden equipment to Belarus aboard Belavia. In effect, there are no longer meaningful import sanctions on Russia.
Last but not least, one of Belavia's primary lines of business, pre-sanctions, was flying in illegal migrants to push across the border into Poland.
The largest problem with lifting the sanctions on Belavia is that chiefly this airline was used for smuggling "migrants" to the Polish border. This is also why it was sanctioned: for hybrid attacks. https://t.co/TfjyPYoCGu
— NordStream 3🦈 (@PaleoWenus) September 13, 2025
There seems to be a conceit in the Trump administration that Russia can be flipped from what amounts to a Chinese client state on the model of North Korea into an ally against China. Politely, that is balderdash. Russia doesn't want to be part of the West because its history and institutions ensure it will never fit in; it will certainly never be counted among the first rank of Western countries. It can't break with China because the Russian Far East is on China's menu and the only thing keeping from the Chinese treating Siberia the same way they treated Tibet is that Russia is a useful club to wield against the West.
Quite honestly, I don't see how this move is anything more than Trump firing his ejection seat after realizing that this war has deep roots and is not going to be solved by economic means. This war ends when one side or the other decides to give up. We haven't reached that point yet. I fear that the effect of Trump pulling back from this effort will be a dramatic decline in American influence in South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, and Australia—the region of the world we are allegedly focusing on.
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