Welcome to Week 59 of Putin’s War in Ukraine. This is the shortest update I’ve posted since I started because little is happening that is apparent outside of classified sources. Even the political side of the war seems to have taken a breather. The front lines are stable, though the daily grind around Bakhmut and Aviivka continues.
Here are some of my previous updates to enjoy.
Putin’s War, Week 58. All Dressed Up and No Place to Go
Putin’s War, Week 57. Waiting for Godot.
Putin’s War, Week 51. Russia’s Slow-Mo Offensive Gets Underway
Putin’s War, Week 50. The Calm Before the Storm
Putin’s War, Week 49. Waiting for the Russian Offensive
Putin’s War, Week 48. The Logjam Breaks and the Leopards Are About to Roam the Ukrainian Landscape
Putin’s War, Week 47. Gerasimov Shakes Up the Russian Army, and the Russian Spring Offensive Looms
Putin’s War, Week 44. Drones Strike Russian Strategic Bomber Base…Again… Prigozhin Makes His Move
Putin’s War, Week 42. Ukraine Gets the Nod to Strike Targets in Russia and Some Tools to Do It With
Many more are available at this link.
Politico-Strategic Level
Russian Military Goes Full ISIS
One of the hallmarks of the Islamic terrorist group ISiS is its penchant for filming beheadings. Not guillotine-type beheadings, but beheadings where the victim’s head is sawed off with a knife. The Russian military is going in the same direction. Yesterday, two of what can only be described as snuff flicks appeared on Russian Telegram outlets and other places. They show Ukrainian prisoners of war beheaded by their captors using a knife. And one video released by a Russian unit hints that others are to follow.
Russian war criminals from the DSHRG "Rusich" cut off the head of a captured Ukrainian soldier: "how many more such videos will pop up". Video 21+ https://t.co/7xEc0EsEVD
— Україна Новини | War in Ukraine 🇺🇦 (@odesalife) April 12, 2023
Bad things happen in wartime, and the most dangerous time for a prisoner is from when he lays down his weapon until he’s handed off for escort to the rear. Tempers run high, and if you’ve lost friends and comrades, you might not be in the mood to let bygones be bygones. This is not to justify the execution of prisoners but to note that it can be understood. That kind of killing in the aftermath of a firefight doesn’t resemble what occurs in these videos, where a man is held down and beheaded to the cheers of the onlookers.
It is more than a little unclear what the Russian military thinks it is accomplishing by feeding into the stereotypes of how the Russians operate.
Ukraine Funding Roundup
All kinds of numbers are thrown around on social media about US funding for Ukraine. I’m presenting these official documents without comment so we can all use the same numbers. For those not familiar with the jargon: appropriated is the amount of money Congress has allowed to be spent; uncommitted is untouched money; committed is money that the agency budgets for a particular activity; and “on contract” is the amount of awarded contracts.
Supplies Sent to Ukraine by streiff at redstate on Scribd
Ukraine Restarts Export of Electricity
For several months, the Russian military targeted Ukraine’s electrical generation capacity (Putin’s War, Week 39. The Battle of the Generators). This campaign had four purposes: a) hamper Ukraine’s domestic economy, b) reduce Ukraine’s income from energy sales, c) inconvenience Ukraine’s energy customers, and d) impose misery on the Ukrainian population.
There is evidence that this campaign may have failed.
#Ukraine says it can export electricity again after months of attacks by invaders on its infrastructure pic.twitter.com/c5rL4shtI3
— RoINTEL (@RoINTEL) April 8, 2023
Russia Isn’t Interested In the Minecraft Leaks
Last week over a hundred documents, many classified top secret, were leaked and distributed on social media (Secret Pentagon Documents Emerge on a Minecraft Players Forum, WTF?). What should’ve been a PR bonanza for the Russians hasn’t turned out that way because one thing the documents demonstrate is that Russia’s intelligence services are deeply penetrated (Leaked Pentagon Documents Reveal Extent of U.S. Penetration Into Russian Intelligence). This is how it plays out on Russian state television.
One aspect of the Pentagon leak not being discussed on state TV is the indication of how deeply Russia’s security and intel services have been penetrated by the US
But former spook Leonid Reshetnikov brought it up today, prompting Olga Skabeyeva to change subject very unsubtly pic.twitter.com/zbiupkuoA9
— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) April 10, 2023
The official Russian line is that the Pentagon created the leaks to attack Russian morale.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Rybakov says the Pentagon leaks might be fake and a psy-op on Russia
A mirror image of Ukraine's contentions, as Russia is likely seeking to downplay the casualty reports included within them
— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) April 12, 2023
More Fallout From the Minecraft Document Drop
The posting of about 100 documents, some of them of the highest security classifications, to a Minecraft Discord server continues to provide fodder for the media. Monday, I posted how a Russian Su-27 fired a missile at a British surveillance aircraft in international airspace; Minecraft Document Leak Reveals a Russian ‘Near Shootdown’ of a British Spy Plane. More detail, or so it is claimed, has emerged about that story.
“The Russian pilot had misinterpreted what a radar operator on the ground was saying to him and thought he had permission to fire. The pilot, who had locked on the British aircraft, fired, but the missile did not launch properly.” https://t.co/WSAwsnlCZB
— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) April 13, 2023
If the people speaking to the New York Times aren’t just making stuff up, the Russian missile malfunctioned. This doesn’t explain why the pilot didn’t follow it up with another missile if he thought he had the authorization to attack.
Another story that set pro-Russia hearts on social media a-bubbling was the revelation that 97 special forces soldiers, including 14 Americans, were in Ukraine (Kirby Confirms Special Forces in Ukraine, After Pentagon Document Leaks Raise Big Questions).
The relentlessly stupid, like Michael Tracey, portrayed this as “boots on the ground.” “Boots on the ground” is a phrase pro-Russian sources use to imply that US forces are engaged in combat operations. There has been open-source mention of this presence, though without a number attached, going back to at least October. The US SOF operators are in Ukraine to assist with monitoring the transfer and custody of US weapons, vehicles, and ammunition to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It would be highly irregular for the number of SOF soldiers involved in a black operation to be thrown in on a personnel summary, and the security classification on the slide has been conveniently cropped…but this is Biden’s Pentagon, so who knows? [NOTE: I just stumbled across a complete copy of this document; it is classified SECRET/NOFORN. This indicates the SOF presence in Ukraine is not a huge secret.]
Is Russia Engaged in Religious Persecution in Occupied Ukraine?
The Institute of the Study of War, which I treat as generally reliable in reporting current events, says it looks like the Russians are engaging in a campaign of religious persecution in Occupied Ukraine. I’m agnostic on this report, but this is pretty much out of how Russia subjugated conquered territory. For example, a substantial number of the Poles murdered in the Katyn Forest were Roman Catholic clergy. It is also of interest because of all the fake claims of the Ukrainian government persecuting the Orthodox Church when all that has happened is that the Moscow-based Ukrainian Orthodox Church has been evicted from government-owned facilities and replaced with the Kiev-based Orthodox Church of Ukraine.
Here is an animation of the report and a Twitter thread giving details.
Four GIFs showing confluence between victim denomination and religious persecution event type for Russian forces that operated in Ukraine.
1. All of Ukraine https://t.co/mzJaLXlaIK pic.twitter.com/Sc1a3rzdQi
— George Barros (@georgewbarros) April 10, 2023
Our team did a deep dive on religious persecution events that Russian forces have reportedly inflicted against Ukrainians and discovered at least 76 reports of Russian forces deliberately coercing religious groups. pic.twitter.com/KbC76CE7lU
— George Barros (@georgewbarros) April 10, 2023
Operational Level
Though there was little significant activity, there were signs that the Russians believe a Ukrainian offensive is imminent.
Russian forces in Ukraine have been developing an extensive series of defensive fortifications a few kilometres behind the current frontline.
They are shown below, overlaid on the latest frontline map.
Excellent work by @bradyafr in identifying and mapping the fortifications. pic.twitter.com/atKTW6KmMe
— War Mapper (@War_Mapper) April 9, 2023
Satellite images of Russian defensive positions in Crimea.
Trenches, bunkers, dragon’s teeth & artillery on the coast and in the depths of the peninsula. pic.twitter.com/aCvRUhqZ4q
— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 12, 2023
The mud, though, is not ready for large-scale activity.
The situation on Ukraine's frontline right now: mud and ankle-high water
🎥92nd brigade https://t.co/VehmKlq3Xo pic.twitter.com/pMqPtiavCv
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) April 8, 2023
Prisoner Exchange
As I’ve noted before, the only apparent diplomatic contact between Ukraine and Russia is in prisoner exchanges. This week, another 100 Ukrainian prisoners of war were repatriated.
Almost half of freed Ukrainian defenders are seriously injured, sick or have been tortured.
The youngest is 19 years old.
🎥, Source: Grnt media, Suspilne, Coordination HQ for the POW Treatment. pic.twitter.com/ruT4zb06PY
— Margo Gontar 🇺🇦 (@MargoGontar) April 10, 2023
New Weapons
Poland Delivers 200 Rosomak Armorer Personnel Carriers
Poland is immediately transferring 100 Rosomak APCs to Ukraine with a promise of 100 more later in the year. The Rosomak is a solid vehicle, and 200 of them will be a welcomed addition to Ukraine’s army.
What makes this more than just the usual weapons transfer is that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky personally announced the deal. This points to what is becoming a strong and strategic alliance between Poland and Ukraine.
In total, Poland will transfer 200 Rosomak armored personnel carriers to Ukraine. 100 now, another 100 later. – according to the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi. https://t.co/1PY96fj0xg pic.twitter.com/TNb55tIKKi
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 8, 2023
Combat Operations
How Not to Attack
Last week I posted a video of a couple of exotic attack methods employed by the Ukrainians (Putin’s War, Week 58. All Dressed up and No Place to Go). This video is of a Russian tank-infantry attack that didn’t go all that well.
This Russian tank attack with at least 3 MBTs and one IFVs didn’t go well for them. The leading MBT with mine-rollers was hit by an ATGM, causing the turret to spin around. #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/V46f0mMUXT
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) April 11, 2023
Neither side is showing the ability to put together infantry, armor, and artillery in a coherent package. It is nearly like each of the combatants had three armies, each doing their own thing. My impression of fixed- and rotary-winged combat operations is the same. There is no coordination, and the missions we see on video don’t seem to have a larger purpose than to inflict casualties. Don’t get me wrong, inflicting casualties is good, but the operations must have a purpose.
The View From Inside
Ever wonder what it would be like to be inside a tank hit by an anti-tank missile? Now you can experience the excitement.
FPV footage of Russian T-72B3M tank getting destroyed by Ukrainian forces. Direct hit. pic.twitter.com/GO1bz2KeK1
— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 9, 2023
Real or Not Real
One of the challenges of sorting through social media for this update is sorting out real and fake information. Sometimes the information is both.
Over the weekend, the Russians carried out a missile strike on a Ukrainian bridge over the Sudost River.
The result of Russian airstrike on the bridge over Sudost River in Chernihiv region.
Significant damage, but not completely destroyed.
The airstrike was conducted with TV Kh-29TD air-to-surface missile. pic.twitter.com/nF7PvaQtM9
— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 9, 2023
It was promptly geolocated.
#RuAF Su-34 attacked the bridge over the Sudost River in the Chernihiv region (52.339408, 33.304639) with guided missile pic.twitter.com/aALTLdxb3j
— Middle East Update (@islamicworldupd) April 9, 2023
When you go to a map, you find that the bridge is just a few miles from the Russian border, the road it is on runs parallel to the border, and only 20 miles south, you find another bridge over the same river.
Bluntly, this was a public relations exercise disguised as a military operation.
Northern Front
No significant military operations took place. I would point out that Bakhmut, which the strategos at Gateway Pundit announced as lost two weeks ago, still holds. The video below makes the case that accepting a battle of attrition was the correct decision. I’m still not convinced.
Southern Front
No significant military operations were reported.
Rear Areas
Russia
Artillery Strike on Russian City
There have been some helicopter raids on Russian cities near the Ukrainian border, drone attacks inside of Russia (The War in Ukraine Heats up as Drones Attack Russian Airbase Only 100 Miles From Moscow and Putin’s War, Week 44. Drones Strike Russian Strategic Bomber Base…Again…and Prigozhin Makes His Move), and active Ukrainian partisan operations, but artillery attacks inside of Russia have been rare.
ZSU for the FIRST TIME showed a video of an artillery strike on the territory of russia. Ukrainian artillery shelled the positions of the russian army near the village of Tsapovka, Belgorod region. The invaders settled down in a forest belt near a farm, 1.3 km from the border… pic.twitter.com/yoDkAoFtXQ
— Ukraine Front Lines (@EuromaidanPR) April 5, 2023
I don’t know if this is a one-off or the beginning of a trend.
What’s Next?
As I’ve said for the last few updates, we wait. Most of the pieces are in place on the Ukrainian side. The Russians obviously believe that a Ukrainian offensive is at hand. I think that when the ground dries enough, we will see how the Ukrainian spring offensive compares to the Russian winter offensive.
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