Shock Poll in PA and More Intriguing News on Toss-Up States

By Nick Arama | 4:25 PM on October 31, 2024

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*Doug Mills/The New York Times via AP, Pool*

We've seen a lot of momentum going in the direction of former President Donald Trump in the last couple of weeks in the polls. In that time, he's even taken over the popular vote poll. He's now leading by 0.5 in the national vote, 48.5 to 48. He's also up 1.0 in the battleground states.

But there are a couple of interesting things to note, including a new shock poll from Echelon Insights, which is a well-thought of poll. The most interesting thing is what it has to say about Pennsylvania. It has Trump up by 6 points head to head with Harris, 52-46, and 5 points in the full field, 51-46.

📊 PENNSYLVANIA GE: @EchelonInsights

🟥 Donald Trump: 52%
🟦 Kamala Harris: 46%

#16 (2.8/3.0) | 10/27-30 | 600 LV pic.twitter.com/hPLK17eXa7
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 31, 2024

If Trump takes Pennsylvania, given the way the other states are leaning, he likely wins.

Now, I would note it's a small poll, only 600. But it was also taken more recently than some of the other polls, so it may be capturing the Trump momentum from things like the Joe Rogan interview and other moves, as well as a rejection of Kamala Harris because of things like Joe Biden's "garbage" remarks.

CNN Drops Some More Data Points That Are Going to Drive Harris Crazy

We'll have to look at how the poling continues to break to learn if others match it--that is, to see if it's a harbinger. Right now, it's a bit of an outlier, but it's definitely interesting. PA is already at 0.7 for Trump up in the average without that factored in; you can see the momentum there appears to be with Trump.

pic.twitter.com/uej59DZvVi
— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) October 31, 2024

Then too, now the RCP has New Hampshire and Minnesota as toss-ups.

Real Clear Politics just moved New Hampshire from "leans Harris" to "toss up."#NHPolitics pic.twitter.com/ZmoSqH6IB0
— Caroline McCaughey (@TheCarolineMc) October 31, 2024

There have been some recent polls, such as the New Hampshire poll that we reported--the New Hampshire Journal poll--that had Trump up by 0.4.

Harris still has the lead there, but it's much tighter than they expected:

Polymarket & most polls still favor Harris, but @RCPolitics moving NH to "toss up" is a marked change.

“It is absolutely a toss up state,” @NHGOPChairman tells me @NewYorkSun https://t.co/J6LqkyWhH3
— Caroline McCaughey (@TheCarolineMc) October 31, 2024

Then, too, there's Minnesota:

In one of Minnesota’s latest polls, Trump is within the margin of error:

🟦 Harris 48% (+3)
🟥 Trump 45%

MinnPost | 1,734 LV | 10/16-22

House Majority Whip, @tomemmer confirms that Minnesota is in play. 👀 pic.twitter.com/OA7pRRtNTO
— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) October 29, 2024

Theoretically, if Trump could take New Hampshire, he could lose the Rust Belt and still make it to 270.

Now, Harris still has the lead there but it's a problem for her that these possibilities are even cropping up, and it could be a sign things are slipping away from her generally.