We've been treated to a ton of media hype about how well Kamala Harris was doing in polls and all the "joy" hype. We're just supposed to buy the "vibes"--and not look too closely at the facts and the data.
I wrote earlier about how there were polls and forecasts calling that into question, including the Trafalgar Group/Insider Advantage polls, a new local Michigan poll, and the latest forecast from Nate Silver. That last one has former President Donald Trump up 56.7 to 43 percent, and Trump up in five of the seven battleground states. That's flipped big time in his predictions since the middle of August, another indication that the honeymoon and the hype are over.
READ MORE: New Michigan Poll and Latest Nate Silver Forecast Are Going to Cause Dem Meltdowns
But there's another indication that things aren't quite what the Kamala hype polls would have you think.
Harris and her surrogates are suddenly campaigning in blue states that, according to the polls, she should be safe in, including Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia. Oddly, Harris campaigned in New Hampshire on Wednesday, Walz in Minnesota, and Doug Emhoff in Virginia.
Now, that's intriguing since those were the states that were in question when Joe Biden was still in the race, with reports that Trump might be gaining ground. Translation? Look to the campaign's actions more than the polls. Because the actions suggest they think those places are in contention. If you have to campaign in those states, you are in trouble:
Between today and Wednesday, the three Harris-Walz principals (Kamala, Tim, Doug) will be doing events in NH, MN & VA, the 3 Blue states Trump seemed to have put in play right before Biden got out. (No NM or NJ….yet). Coincidence? https://t.co/IqCyPlbByf
— Mark Halperin (@MarkHalperin) September 2, 2024
That's particularly funny, given that one of them is Minnesota -- Tim Walz's state. So choosing him doesn't seem to have given them security there. She actually lost ground there -- 5 percentage points -- after picking him, plus she could have gained in Pennsylvania had she picked Josh Shapiro, the governor there. Great choice, Kamala!
READ MORE: Whoops! Kamala's Minnesota Poll Numbers Take a Nosedive After Walz Pick
This take from Newsmax host Rob Schmitt sounds right on the money. He talks about one "hype" poll, the ABC/Ipsos poll, which has Kamala Harris up, but notes that the same poll actually had Hillary Clinton leading by double digits just before the November election in 2016. The point being, it shows you can't rely on such polls.
Rob Schmitt: "With Kamala campaigning in fairly deep blue states, it's clear Americans are not nearly indoctrinated enough to fall for the scheme that this entire apparatus has just tried to pull on you." pic.twitter.com/UQTaXXH1KN
— NEWSMAX (@NEWSMAX) September 4, 2024
Schmitt mentioned Kamala's ridiculous accent in Detroit, noting Americans are very perceptive, "They can spot a fake, and they can spot a fool." He said this week, the campaign's actions speak louder than such "media polls," with it sending the three top people out to those blue states There's not a lot of time left, "so why in early September are they in Minnesota, Virginia, and New Hampshire?" he asked.
"If those are even in question, it's over already,"Schmitt continued. "Maybe avoiding all media scrutiny after a career of spineless political flip-flopping is not such a winning ticket after all."
Meanwhile, the Trump team is reaching out to any media outlet to present its plans, having enough respect for the public to believe they deserve to know. Vance himself has done 94 interviews, press conferences, and gaggles with the media--while Kamala and Walz have been hiding out.
Even Trump commented on her being in New Hampshire, and some of the reasons she could have lost some people there.
Trump on @KamalaHarris visit to Portsmouth Wednesday —>#NHPolitics @NHGOP @NHDems pic.twitter.com/hyz8GZt6t5
— NH Journal (@NewHampJournal) September 3, 2024
Let's face it--it's not the behavior of a campaign that thinks those are safe states, but one that believes those states in contention and need resources. If those were safe, they should be using all their time in the battleground states.
This may be why suddenly they're pulling out "Russia, Russia,Russia" again to raise the question of interference. They're throwing things up against the wall as the "vibes" start to fail them.
