New Michigan Poll and Latest Nate Silver Forecast Are Going to Cause Dem Meltdowns

When the 2020 campaign began for the Democrats, Kamala Harris was thought to be one of the candidates that people might gravitate to. But then she began talking. And the more people saw her and heard from her, the more they didn't like her. Everyone remembers how she flamed out against Tulsi Gabbard during the debates and then she had to drop out, That's what happens when you don't have the media machine behind you to hype you up into something you are not.

That honeymoon may be stalling out again if some of the latest polls are any indication. Now again, polls are polls, and as I usually say we have to look at the cross tabs and bias. I wrote about The Trafalgar Group poll that had Trump up in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and a little ahead/basically a dead heat in Michigan.

There was also the Insider Advantage poll that found Trump ahead in Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina (and down by only 0.4 percent in Georgia).

But now there are new polling/forecasts that may add some more confirmation that Harris is slipping -- just how tight it is in Michigan. That should be one of her best states, but it seems to be basically a dead heat.

According to a new local poll conducted by the Glengariff Group for WDIV/Detroit News, Trump is leading in Michigan by 1.2 percent, 44.7 to 43.5 with likely voters. That's even more than the Trafalgar Group poll that had him up by 0.4 percent. The poll does have Harris up by 1.7 with definite voters.

What's more, that's not counting the 4 to 5 percent which the poll is according to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. So that number may not be counting any Kennedy crossovers for Trump. If there's any appreciable crossover that could push the Trump number even higher.

Now that's still statistically tight, but if she loses Michigan, she's going to have a very bad night, come the election. Michigan should be one of her best opportunities and if that's bad and that tight, she may be in for a rough time.

Then to add a little more fun to the mix, Nate Silver came out with another forecast and that's looking even worse for Harris, 56.7 to 43 percent. In the words of Joe Concha, that has Trump up by almost "two touchdowns" in chances of winning, the highest since July 31.

That's pretty bad news for Harris.

So much for any bump from the DNC or that trainwreck of a CNN interview. That's going to make the Democrats start tearing their hair out and second-guessing their "vibe" campaign.

Silver notes one of the problems for Harris has been there hasn't been a lot of positive state polling for her lately, and he notes that local Michigan poll in which she lost ground since July 24th.

In the words of columnist David Marcus, "Kamala describing how she makes collard greens and Tim eating pork chops on a stick at the state fair isn’t going to cut it."

Americans want answers and they're beginning to see -- once again -- that Kamala doesn't have any.