I'll start this with my typical poll story advisory: We're a ways out from the election yet, and it's a poll, so always take everything with a grain of salt.
But I think this poll is instructive as to the general momentum moving toward former President Donald Trump and away from incumbent President Joe Biden at this point. Plus, the polls are starting to be redundant, with each finding similar things. So that gives them a bit more merit.
First, let's start with the Real Clear Politics numbers as of Dec. 11. The RCP average has him up by 2.2. Check out the red ahead in the past month.
— Dr. Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) December 11, 2023
If that wasn't evident enough from the overabundance of red, this graph shows the trend as well.
— Dr. Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) December 11, 2023
Now, the new numbers from Race to the White House, which looks at the current polling, show big movement since July, and Trump truly trouncing Biden in the swing states. I've written before about Trump moving ahead in most of the swing states in another poll. But Race to the White House which Biden had a slim lead in all the states in July, now has Trump up in five of the six states, in Georgia by as much as 5.7.
NEW: @RacetotheWH Swing States polling avg. (Biden vs Trump, July 20 ➡️ Dec. 10)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) December 11, 2023
GA: D+0.2 ➡️ R+5.7
AZ: D+1.2 ➡️ R+4.9
NV: D+2.7 ➡️ R+2.9
PA: D+1.5 ➡️ R+2.3
MI: D+1.6 ➡️ R+1.3
WI: D+7.3 ➡️ D+1.9
——
EC based on polls
🔴 Trump — 301
🔵 Biden — 235https://t.co/b0GexgbmFK pic.twitter.com/Vjc6EMCl4u
If Trump is truly up in Michigan, that would be pretty amazing. They also show the Electoral College numbers, and they're big for Trump, at 301 to Biden's 235. That map spells big trouble for Biden.
But that's not all. CNN had a poll come out on Monday that showed a similar story in Michigan and Georgia.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: CNN/SSRS
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) December 11, 2023
MICHIGAN
Trump: 50% (+10)
Biden: 40%
--
Trump: 39% (+8)
Biden: 31%
RFK Jr: 20%
West: 6%
—
GEORGIA
Trump: 49% (+5)
Biden: 44%
--
Trump: 42% (+8)
Biden: 34%
RFK Jr: 15%
West: 6%
—
1,197 RV (MI) | 1,068 RV (GA) | 11/29-12/7 https://t.co/mUmHTAGlC8 pic.twitter.com/rrwzQc2tdT
They even had to admit it on the air: The news for Joe Biden "is not great." The CNN host did not look at all happy that she had to say this.
CNN forced to read their own polls on-air showing Trump eclipsing Joe Biden:
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) December 11, 2023
"The news is not great for President Biden." pic.twitter.com/T1nb22wuzZ
The Georgia poll has Trump up by five percent, and the Michigan poll has him up by ten percent. Trump is getting the vote of a lot of folks who say they didn't vote in 2020. Those people are pushing it toward Trump by 26 points percent in Georgia and 40 percent in Michigan. That sounds like a serious rejection of Biden, remembering things were better under Trump for those folks. If that's true, that's Trump growing his voters from 2020, assuming these folks are voting now.
This might explain why it seems like Democrats are starting to panic now.
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