Earlier I reported on some polls that were indicating good news for President Donald Trump.
Among the polls covered was the Zogby poll showing that he has a 51% approval rating. That’s an important metric to hit, as Gallup has observed that historically, “all incumbents with an approval rating of 50% or higher have won reelection, and presidents with approval ratings much lower than 50% have lost.”
Trump Approval at 51%
(poll released on Oct 9; 833 likely voters; conducted 9/25-27) pic.twitter.com/cvTLFBlvH3
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 9, 2020
Now there’s another important metric, this time from Gallup itself.
During his presidential campaign in 1980, Ronald Reagan asked Americans, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” Since then, this question has served as a key standard that sitting presidents running for reelection have been held to.
So Gallup asked Americans between September 14-28 if they were better off now than they were four years ago and 56% said they were, even in the midst of a pandemic. The number was actually even higher in January before the virus at 61 percent.
% of Americans who say they are better off now than they were 4 years ago
Sept 2020: 56 percent
Dec 2012: 45 percent
Oct 2004: 47 percent
Oct 1992: 38 percent
— Rob Henderson (@robkhenderson) October 8, 2020
Not only is that a significant positive sign for Trump, if you look at the numbers of the presidents in the prior year, he’s higher than the presidents who were incumbents and won in those years – 1984, 1992, 2004 and 2012. He’s 12 points higher than Reagan who won in a landslide in 1984 and 11 points higher than Obama in 2012 in that number. That should terrify the Democrats, especially when combined with Trump’s approval number.
The poll also asked, regardless of who they support, who did they think was going to win? A majority of Americans said Trump, by a lot, from 56 to 40 precent.
— Team Trump (Text VOTE to 88022) (@TeamTrump) October 9, 2020
The poll also found that while MSM polls were saying that Biden was leading, that more Americans agreed with Trump’s policy position than with that of Biden, 49 to 46 percent.
With the 51% approval and the 56% better off poll, it’s hard to see how the MSM polls claiming Biden is leading by could be true.