The Miami Herald ran a story that sounded, from the tweet and the headline like it was good news for Joe Biden and bad news for President Donald Trump.
NEW: A poll of 500 likely Miami-Dade voters, released Tuesday, found President Trump far behind Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in Miami-Dade, where Democrats typically need to run up the score in order to compete in statewide races. https://t.co/jFPPzrgr48
— Miami Herald (@MiamiHerald) September 8, 2020
But when you read the story, it’s actually the opposite and it’s one more poll blaring danger signs for Biden and good news for Trump in a critical state.
Miami-Dade is the most populous county and it’s definitely a Democratic county. So yes, Biden is likely leading in it. But the question is by how much and that’s the real story here. Democrats need to run up the score in Miami-Dade to offset the other conservative counties.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the county by 30 points, but still lost the state by 1.2 percent. Biden is only up by 17 points.
“If you’re the Biden campaign, looking at these numbers, I think there’s reason for pause,” said Fernand Amandi, the Miami-based pollster and Democratic strategist behind the poll. “If Biden under-performs in what should be one of his strongest counties — and is certainly the largest county for Democratic votes in the state of Florida — it might imperil his chances of winning Florida unless there is a massive white voter exodus from Trump in other parts of the state.”
Biden is really struggling with Hispanic voters. Trump is actually up by a point over Biden, at 47 to 46 percent, in Miami-Dade. That’s likely due at least in part to conservative Cubans. That’s helped Republicans win for governor and the Senate in 2018.
— David Smiley (@NewsbySmiley) September 8, 2020
The riots, with the greater concern about Democrats embracing far-left radicals, is also likely to make Cubans run from Biden.
“Democrats are potentially leaving Cuban votes on the table that they won in the past, which could very well make a difference in a state as tight as Florida,” said Amandi, whose firm produced Spanish-language ads for the 2012 Obama campaign.
A prior poll from last week also showed similar numbers and problems with Biden’s numbers lagging with Hispanics in Florida by comparison to Hillary Clinton’s numbers. So this new poll wasn’t an outlier.
Trump won Florida in 2016, and his numbers among Hispanics are stacking up better than they were in 2016. If this holds in this critical state, this may be one more state moving into the Trump column for November.