It’s no sure thing that Republicans will lose seats in the mid-term, but based on the current polling, they’re off to a pretty poor start.

Hip-hop mogul Sean “P. Diddy” Combs, left, interviews Ed Gillespie, chairman of the Republican National Committee, for MTV before the final night of the Republican National Convention Thursday, Sept. 2, 2004, in New York. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

During the Bill Clinton-George W. Bush era, the party of the President losing seats in the midterm was not guaranteed. Barack Obama’s personal popularity changed that back to the previous pre-war trend, but he’s no longer in office. Donald Trump is, and it’s an open question how his voters will operate in a midterm environment.

But the early polls aren’t looking great. Ed Gillespie still hasn’t won a single poll since winning the nomination to be the next Governor of Virginia. Ralph Northam appears to be cruising against the Republican who has never won elective office in his life.

After an initial troll poll by a Republican leaning firm, Robert ‘Kid Rock’ Ritchie is getting clobbered in Michigan polling.

And Trump surrogate Chris Christie appears to have annihilated his own party in the state, as Republican Kim Guadagno can get no traction at all against Democrat Phil Murphy.

It’s early, but this is the sort of trend that leads to a wipeout wave of retirements.