Much attention was given to Donald Trump having a remarkably good polling week, one just barely good enough to give him a less-than-1% lead in the polling average.
But that’s gone, as a freak outlier poll that gave him the lead, was retaken. Result: Hillary Clinton on top.
The “big” result that put Trump over the top in the poll average was the Rasmussen Reports poll last week that showed Clinton 37, Trump 42. That was notable as it was by far Clinton’s lowest showing in any poll versus Trump, apart from another 37 from Rasmussen in December. It was clearly an outlier.
Well, Rasmussen went back out in the field this week. Sure enough, Clinton gained 3 and Trump lost 3 from the previous poll for a result of Clinton 40, Trump 39. This puts Clinton back on top by a point both in Rasmussen’s poll, and in the national polling average.
So not only is that lead gone, but the lead was probably an illusion to begin with. Clinton was never at 37, it was just a bad poll of the kind Rasmussen gets every once in a while due to the mathematics of random sampling. Unlike the cake, the lead was as lie.
Clinton has now won two of the last three polls, so expect disappointed silence from the “The Party is Always Right” crowd. You know the type. They’re the folks who were rushing to say, quite illogically, that Trump poll leads will force #NeverTrump people to sell out out principles and vote for Donald Trump.
Just wait until Clinton clinches the nomination in California, beginning the reunification of the Democrats…