I don’t know if it’s because he’s been low T Energy lately, having to skip events to get his beauty sleep make late-night business deals, but the evidence is in, and it’s impossible to dismiss: Donald Trump has hit a peak, and is sliding down in the polls.

He might yet rebound, but for now we have to see if he can stop the bleeding out of his wherever support.

One would think that boycotting Fox News Channel, the cable leader and a long-time Republican favorite, would hurt him. But it’s hard to know if that’s the case. What we do know is that Trump is down, and Ben Carson is waiting in the wings.

Trump had rattled off 11 of 12 polls, including seven in a row, with a double-digit lead. That’s gone. His last five leads, from five different pollsters, have been 4, 9, 8, 5, and 8.

While it’s easy to say this is all the debate, that’s only part of the story. Yes, the post-debate polls have been kind to Fiorina (though each successive poll since the debate has shown a decay in her poll bounce), but Trump’s slide to Carson’s benefit predates that. The CBS poll with Trump’s lead cut to 4 came out before the debate!

My read: Trump and Carson are the big two right now. Carly Fiorina is this cycle’s Newt Gingrich. We love to hear her debate, but we don’t really want her as our nominee. Those temporary boosts of supporters to Fiorina seem to come mostly from Ben Carson, telling me Carson’s support is soft, and his supporters are willing to go elsewhere. Jeb Bush and [mc_name name=’Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’R000595′ ] are hanging in there, down but not out, though between the two I give the edge to Rubio. [mc_name name=’Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’C001098′ ] has his fans. He should be able to hang in long enough that, if Trump quits, he can try to gobble up Trump’s support.

Nobody else in the race has any business being in any future debates.

Photos by Gage Skidmore on Flickr