I stopped doing this in the middle of 2010, once it became clear that the real question of 2010 was how many hits to the head with the snake the Democrats were going to take before it was all over. As the answer was “a lot,” I feel that this was a wise prioritization of my time.
But it’s a new cycle, so let’s look at the numbers – both the latest ones, and May’s. Short version: Republicans are scoring better in nine out of ten topics that Rasmussen charts, and there’s a ten point lead on the economy. Which, not incidentally, is the most burning issue for Americans these days.
| July 2011 | May 2011 | ||||||
| Issue | Dem | GOP | Diff | Dem | GOP | Diff | Shift |
| Economy | 35% | 45% | (10) | 42% | 46% | (4) | (6) |
| Health Care | 43% | 46% | (3) | 43% | 42% | 1 | (4) |
| Education | 42% | 38% | 4 | 42% | 35% | 7 | (3) |
| Iraq | 37% | 41% | (4) | 40% | 42% | (2) | (2) |
| Immigration | 33% | 47% | (14) | 39% | 43% | (4) | (10) |
| Social Security | 40% | 42% | (2) | 40% | 39% | 1 | (3) |
| Afghanistan | 37% | 42% | (5) | 40% | 42% | (2) | (3) |
| Government Ethics | 35% | 38% | (3) | 39% | 35% | 4 | (7) |
| National Security | 37% | 45% | (8) | 39% | 47% | (8) | (0) |
| Taxes | 40% | 46% | (6) | 41% | 42% | (1) | (5) |
What’s really interesting, though, is the way that Democrats did consistently worse on pretty much every front; and if I was a Democratic adviser and I had any time to spare from worrying about the economy numbers I’d be worrying about the immigration ones. Admittedly, it’s still sixteen months before the election; only… people said things like that a lot in the 2010 election cycle, too. A trend can develop out this early; back in 2009 this was about the time where people really started taking seriously the idea that the GOP could actually maybe be in a position where they could delicately hint at the possibility that they could, you know, retake the House or something in less than forty years.
And, with the partial exception of taxes, the numbers then aren’t notably better for Democrats than the numbers now.
Moe Lane (crosspost)
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