Earlier this week, Quinnipiac released a swing state poll showing Trump tied with Clinton in Ohio and leading comfortably in Florida and Pennsylvania. I poked some fun at the obvious problems with the poll’s internals on Twitter, and the Trump supporters accused me of trying to “unskew” the poll. Okay. Fine. I guess we have to accept that all the polls are right and none of them have patently bogus samples anymore.
Which is bad news for Trump because this NBC/WSJ/Marist poll shows him getting trucked in states that really are swing states any GOP candidate absolutely has to win: North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, and Florida. The poll shows Clinton leading Trump by 6 in North Carolina, 7 in Florida, 8 in Colorado, and 9 in Virginia. Throwing Johnson into the mix reduces Clinton’s lead by about 1 point in each state.
If these results are accurate, they portend about a 40-state win for Clinton in November. Which, if I had to guess, is what will likely happen. I am not really sure that they are an accurate representation of where the race stands today, and I’d be tempted to go into the cross tabs and find possible obvious errors, but I don’t want to be accused of denying reality when it’s right in front of my face.