No, Trump is Not over 50% Nationally

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures toward supporters after speaking during a rally, Friday, April 22, 2016, at the Delaware State Fairgrounds in Harrington, Del. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Trump’s supporters, who are among the most credulous people on earth (which is the main reason they are Trump supporters) have been touting a poll which purportedly shows that Trump is above 50% nationally. Actually, it shows that he is at 50%, but still. The main problem with this poll is that it is a SurveyMonkey poll, which is to say, a non-scientific poll.


In other words, this poll is just as worthless at measuring Trump’s level of support as a Drudge poll. Which means – and I know this will be shocking to Trump’s supporters and even moreso to Trump himself – that it is completely worthless. A USA/Today Suffolk poll was released late yesterday which registered Trump’s level of support at 45%, which is more or less consistent with other recent polls that all show him in the 38-45% range.

The fact is that Trump hasn’t yet cracked 50% in a scientific national poll, which is pretty astounding given that we started voting three months ago and over a dozen other contenders have been knocked out of the race. Remember back after South Carolina when Trump was mocking the media who said that the other candidates were still beating him if you combined their totals, and he said, “How stupid are they? Do they not realize that when other people drop out, some of their supporters are coming to me?”


News flash: no, they aren’t. If they haven’t by now, they never will. Nothing has changed that – not Trump’s big day on Super Tuesday, not his allegedly momentous victory in New York, nothing. Give it up, Trumpkins – Trump will not consolidate the Republican vote. He may yet win the nomination because the system is in fact rigged, in his favor. But he’s not going to reach the point that half of Republicans support him.



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