I see a lot of people on twitter who fancy themselves to be smart observers of politics pooh-poohing the Cruz/Kasich alliance as “too little, too late.” This is absolute hogwash. As long as both Indiana and California are outstanding, the nomination is very much in play.
If anyone wants to preach defeatism or to surrender to Trump before the 1,237th delegate vote is actually counted, they are welcome to do so as long as they get out of the way of people who are still trying to save this party and this country.
I laid this out in some detail this morning – it is most definitely not too late. If Trump loses the majority of delegates in Indiana, or more than about 40% of the delegates in California, then he is going to have a very hard time reaching 1,237 on the first vote. If he does not reach 1,237 on the first vote, he never will – Ted Cruz has made sure of that. This thing is not going to be decided until June 7th, at least.
However, my concern is that this Cruz/Kasich alliance might be too little. The reason for that being that it has John Kasich in it, and Kasich is already going around telling his voters in Indiana to vote for him and not Cruz. This is the kind of dumb, politically ignorant crap that Kasich always does that is going to throw this election to Trump. I know it would be unconventional for him to tell his supporters to vote for someone else, but Marco Rubio did it to help him get his only win so far (in Ohio), so what the hell is his problem, exactly?
Here is the bottom line, Cruz must get the lion’s share of delegates in Indiana. Some combination of Cruz and Kasich need to get about half the delegates in California. I doubt this can happen unless Kasich either suspends his campaign or actually tells his voters to go out and vote for Ted Cruz in those states.
There’s no practical reason not to. He’s already going to be making a pitch at the convention that is based purely on his electability against Hillary Clinton. It doesn’t matter to anyone whether he does that with 143 delegates in his pocket or 175 – he got his ass kicked by both Cruz and Trump in the primary and he’s going to be asking to get the nomination regardless. Nothing Kasich can do right now can change that dynamic. He can either make the sale or he can’t.
However, this deal is just not enough. As long as Kasich is out there being a backstabbing idiot, it’s hard to see Cruz pulling off Indiana (unless the polls are wrong, which they very well might be) or making a huge dent in WTA by district California.
It is most definitely not too late. The only problem is that it might be too little. Unless and until Kasich grows up and realizes the score, or unless his equally stubborn voters do, Trump might win. But we definitely don’t know that yet and anyone who is resigned to Trump already should at least do the country a favor and keep a lid on it.