If Jon Ossoff wins the special election in Georgia’s 6th Congressional district, it will be a miracle. Whether he wins on April 18th in a field of 18 candidates or whether he wins in a runoff in June.
It’s a solid Republican seat, and a Republican has held it since 1979. Donald Trump won the district in the 2016 Presidential race over Hillary Clinton by 1 point, and with $8 million pouring into Jon Ossoff’s campaign coffers, the media is hoping for an upset so that they can carry the narrative of ‘Toxic Trump’ through to the mid-term 2018 elections.
The media clings to Trump’s weakness over Hillary as a reason for Ossoff to win but they forget that Tom Price won his race with 61% of the vote. Voters in the district are educated and in the presidential primary went for Marco Rubio over Trump by a large margin.
Ossoff has never polled higher than 45% in the April 18th race. His average is approximately 42% which is nowhere near the 50% he needs to avoid a runoff, but you wouldn’t know it from watching Morning Joe today. Watch Kasie Hunt:
She said, “One of those Democrats is closer to getting 50% and winning outright than anybody ever expected.”
How? The latest poll shows Ossoff with 39%. Insiders put his numbers at best at around 42% tonight.
Willie Geist then weighed in and said the following:
“I don’t think it will be a huge shocker.”
Yes, it most certainly would be a huge shocker. It doesn’t matter if people in the district do not like Donald Trump.
The build-up is big. If Ossoff loses but loses by 7-8 points instead of 20, we’ll get another round of, “See? Republicans are in trouble! This is just like Kansas!”
Just like Kansas. Where a Republican won.