What the Oddsmakers Think of the 2020 Democratic Field: The Mid-April Report

Promoted from the diaries by streiff. Promotion does not imply endorsement.

It is illegal for online gaming companies to take wagers on political races, but that does not stop offshore entities from doing so and establishing odds.  After parsing through how these many companies did in predicting the 2016 presidential election, this writer developed a list of the ten best odds making prognosticators and then has a habit of continuously running 2020 Democratic candidates through a rank-ordering system.  These are the results (yes… I may have too much free time on my hands):


1. BERNIE SANDERS (Formerly #4)

With all the craziness among the other candidates, every Democrat’s favorite original socialist slips back up to the number one spot.  The Ichabod Crane of modern American politics, known for that speck of spittle in the corner of his mouth (seriously…watch closely) is at least the most consistently hypocritical and goofy of the lot.  This will potentially make for a great general election campaign.

2. Kamala Harris (Formerly #1)

What can you do after you sleep your way to the top with Willie Brown?  Answer: become the state attorney general in California, parlay that into a Senate seat, then run for president.  She is using the Barack Obama strategy- be a do-nothing Senator, make some good speeches, then consider yourself worthy of the Oval Office.  Yet, she holds down the #2 spot which is a sad commentary on the state of the Democratic field.

3. Joe Biden (Formerly #2)

Serial groping, kissing and hair-smelling has apparently not soured too many odds makers on the former Vice President known for groping, kissing, hair smelling and plagiarism.  And racism.  And enriching his son through agreements with the Ukrainian government.  There is so much here for Trump to exploit, it helps explain why the guy cannot seem to make up his mind.

4. Robert Francis O’Rourke (formerly #3)


After some fanfare, everyone’s favorite Gaelic candidate who thinks himself Hispanic, drops one spot.  The fact he is in the top 5 shows how crazy Democrats are considering this guy has been in a furry rock band, talks with his hands, jumps on counters and tables, eats dirt, and writes pornographic bovine poetry.  This guy makes Howard Dean’s Iowa scream heard around the world look almost sane.

5. Pete Buttieg (formerly unranked)

I have to admit, this one surprised me.  My guess is the former gay mayor of South Bend, Indiana will have his 15 minutes of fame, then fade out like a dying star.  In fact, his current popularity among odds makers may indicate that he is in the supernova stage of implosion.  He has been getting some free airtime from the media which will only shine a brighter spotlight on his ridiculous platform proposals.

6. Amy Klobuchar (formerly #6)

This book thrower who likes to eat salads with a comb from her purse holds steady at the #6 spot.  We have not heard too much from her of late which, given all the ridiculousness around her, may not be a bad strategy.  Sooner or later though she will have to finish her salad, put down the comb, have an intern thoroughly clean it, and make some appearances.

#7. Elizabeth Warren (formerly #5)

Warren is falling faster than a meteorite hitting earth’s upper atmosphere.  She’s yesterday’s news who has to compete with a more established New England hypocritical socialist.  She will likely hang around for a while, but this writer expects Warren to be one of the first big names to drop out of the mix.


#8. Corey Booker (formerly #10)

A goofball of the highest order, Booker moves up on my list only because I kind of changed the criteria for inclusion plus he is sort of like Klobuchar- laying in the shadows as others make the more bombastic proclamations.  It isn’t that he does not make bombastic proclamations; it is just that those of others are more bombastic.

#9. Andrew Yang (formerly unranked)

He is a beneficiary of those aforementioned criteria for inclusion on this list.  This guy is so desperate he is actually buying votes to worm his way into the White House.  Personally, this writer believes this is just a huge publicity stunt, or he is truly delusional like the rest of this field of miscreants.

#10. Tulsi Gabbard (formerly #9)

This surfing Congresswoman from Hawaii faces tremendous odds.  First, she has to overcome the thought police within her own party.  Assuming she bows low enough at the altar of political correctness, she then must overcome her party’s foreign policy apparatus.  Then she would have to take on Trump in 2020.  One suggestion: in a Democratic candidate debate, they need to position Gabbard as far away from Biden as possible on that stage.

As more declare their candidacy (even though Biden hasn’t yet), this analysis will likely change.  Please note the absence of Julian Castro, John Delaney, John Hicklenhooper and other declared candidates who failed to make the cut.  If Biden decides against a run, or if some bovine refugee from a dairy farm in Georgia like Stacey Abrams joins the mix, things can change dramatically.  Check back in mid-June for the next update.



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