President Donald J. Trump participates in a video teleconference with governors to discuss a partnership to prepare, mitigate, and respond to the coronavirus outbreak Thursday, March 19, 2020, at the Federal Emergency Management Agency headquarters in Washington, D.C. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)
This is the 7th in a series of nightly updates regarding Wuhan Virus numbers in these United States.
The trend line in American Wuhan Virus fatalities compared to total infections continues to be grounds for cautious optimism. As of 2359 GMT, March 23, 2020, the U.S. Mortality Rate (M/R) (calculated by dividing the number of reported U.S. Infections into the number of reported U.S Fatalities) was 1.25%, very slightly down from yesterday. This number has been declining since March 3, when the rate was over 7%.
Red State will continue to publish this Wuhan Virus Update showing total reported U.S. Cases and Total U.S. Fatalities from the disease, along with appropriate commentary regarding any observable trends until it’s determined to be no longer useful to our readers.
On the left, this first chart shows the data table, starting February 29, the date of the first reported U.S fatality and continuing until today. On the right, are two graphical representations of the data. The top graph shows the decline of the Mortality Rate. As you can see from the numbers on the left and chart on the upper right, today shows a slight downtick from yesterday’s report. My assessment is that the M/R will continue its downward path until test materials and equipment are fully fielded and the supply chain is well established and fully supportive of demand from the field. At that point, the calculated M/R will reflect what it actually has been all along.
The bottom graph shows the total U.S Fatalities. Today’s numbers are somewhat concerning. Instead of moving back to the right, the Fatalities line moved slightly back to the left with new additional deaths of 129, an increase of 15. Whether this is indeed a harbinger of worse to come, merely a spike or just the Fatality count lagging behind the count of newly discovered cases is still yet to be determined. As I noted when there was “good news,” one or even two days, does not make a trend.
In a note from today’s Presidential Briefing Dr.Deborah Birx, a member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, said one child age 14 died of the virus in China, but no child under 15 has died of the virus in Europe. “That should be reassuring to the moms and dads out there,” she said. Birx also said the New York metro area of New Jersey, New York City and parts of Long Island have an attack rate close to one in 1,000, which is fives times what other areas are seeing. As we go further, we’ll have a look at how high-density populations impact the effects of this virus.
This chart is a “What If” graphic. It represents the M/R for reported infections. It also shows the M/R if we assume for each reported case of Wuhan Virus, there are 1, 2 or 3 other persons out there with it. For today’s report:
M/R = 1.25%
+1 = 0.63%
+2 = 0.42%
+3 = 0.31%
If you believe that there is a good chance that for each known person infected, there are 3 others out there who haven’t been reported, then the United States Wuhan Virus is now approaching the same CDC claimed M/R for our seasonal Flu. All of this could change in a nanosecond, but for now, once again, cautiously optimistic.
We hope this is of some value. Whether it is or isn’t, please let me know in the comments.
Prayers for all the folks on the front lines of this effort who are putting themselves at risk on our behalf.