It is the first weekend of May, which means it is time for the most exciting two minutes in sports. Churchill Downs is the center of horse racing on Saturday, as the first leg of the thoroughbred Grand Slam takes place, and in 2026, there is no shortage of speculation about who can come away with the title under the Twin Spires in Louisville, Kentucky.
Two factors have been in play in the run-up to tonight’s post time. There is an array of horses who can easily be tabbed to take the wire. This has been thrown even further into the speculative realm by a number of scratches this week, including one of the main contenders Saturday morning, shortening the field to 19 horses. So looking into who to choose today is going to involve as much gut instinct as analysis.
This swirling field was indicated at the start when the champion 2-year-old Ted Noffey, undefeated in four races, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in October 2025, was sidelined for months with an injury and missed the qualifying season.
Earlier this week, there was a small controversy when Right To Party was scratched due to a veterinarian’s decision, based on how he looked in warmups. The trainer contended that it was the horse’s natural gait, but he was pulled from the lineup on Friday. Then this morning, The Puma, one of the favorite contenders, was pulled out with a small leg injury, making for the fifth scratch this week. It was so bad that one of the replacements, Corona de Oro, was subsequently scratched.
That said, what are we looking at on the card for this 152nd Run for the Roses? It is tough betting, as the morning lines show half a dozen rides are sporting odds below 10-1.
Most are regarding Renegade as the one favorite, but he drew the number one post last Saturday, which mitigates so much hype. Unless he gets a sharp start, the field could collapse on him on the rail and bury him in the crowd. He comes in with wins at the Tampa and Arkansas Derbies, and if he gets clear, he is the threat.
Another hot name is Commandment, winner of the Florida Derby and the Fountain of Youth Stakes. These two horses share a championship pedigree, with A.P. Indy, Unbridled, and Storm Cat in their bloodlines. Renegade has Curlin as a grandfather, while Commandment is a second-generation descendant of 2013 Kentucky Derby champ Orb. Helping Commandment’s fortunes is, following the departure of Right To Party, he will sport the number six towel but slides into the fifth post position, which delivers the most Derby winners.
One of the better stories is behind So Happy, a growing betting favorite at 6-1. During a 30-year career, trainer Mark Glatt never placed a horse in the Derby. The horse was regarded as ironically named, as Glatt is well known as a more downcast grouch of sorts, and then his wife passed away this February, shortly after they acquired the horse. But just a couple of months later, he shockingly won the Santa Anita Derby and qualified for today’s field.
Chief Wallabee (8-1) has been in the money, but came in behind Commandment in the pair of Florida races. Further Ado is in the mix with just some questions about light competition, though it sports a win at the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. One of the intriguing looks is another with dropping odds, Emerging Market. The horse looks strong, but the question mark is that it has only been in two races (wins in the Tampa and the Louisiana Derbies); the last time a winner had such a truncated resume was back in the 1800s.
Trainer Bob Baffert does have two rides, his best chance being in Potente, lingering with 20-1 odds, the winner in the San Felipe in March, and coming in behind So Happy at the Santa Anita. His other is Litmus Test, with slightly longer odds. The Japanese entrant Danon Bourbon strives to be the first Japanese horse to win at the Derby. For longshot temptations, Incredibolt has been competitive, and one of the replacement rides, Great White, has earned more interest as the weekend approached.
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As the race goes off around 6:57 PM Eastern, everything will be dictated by how Renegade breaks free. I like Commandment as a finisher, with Renegade catching up after clearing the field, and Emerging Market hitting the board. But with 19 steeds that have prospects so close this year, it is an anything-can-happen race.
Get those mint juleps prepared, and settle in for a long day of a racing undercard.
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