As I write this, the first and possibly only presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is less than two hours from kicking off. With the election firmly a toss-up, and the last debate leading to Joe Biden dropping out of the race, the stakes could not be higher. 

All conventional wisdom about debates not mattering is out the window. Both candidates will walk out to their respective podiums knowing they have to perform or it could mean disaster. Harris arguably has the most to prove given her refusal to do press conferences or solo interviews. Will her patented word salads return, or will the vice president nail her talking points? 

I don't know the answer to that question, and we'll all find out soon enough. What I do know is that Harris will almost certainly lay a trap that Trump must avoid: Talking about the 2020 election. 

Nothing gets Trump more riled up than someone suggesting the election wasn't stolen. People have argued over the matter until they are blue in the face, and I'm not here to rehash any of that. What's more important is the here and now, and that means doing what it takes to win the 2024 election. 

If Trump responds to a snide remark from Harris about 2020 with a lengthy rant about the election being stolen, it will be the headline and lede of every reaction piece in the press. Nothing else will matter. He could land a dozen blows, and if he makes that one mistake, no one will talk about them. That may not be fair, but fairness has nothing to do with it. Perception is everything, and this could not be closer. Anything that leaves persuadable voters rolling their eyes could cost Trump the election. 

No one is doubting his biggest supporters love the 2020 election talk, but he has their votes. He doesn't need to throw them any red meat. Harris desperately wants and needs a moment where she can point at Trump and say, "This guy is focused on the past, and I'm focused on the future." The former president should not give it to her. 

More broadly, any situation where Trump finds himself lashing out will play in Harris' favor. That doesn't mean he can't nail her on the issues when it's his turn to talk or get a jab (such as this masterpiece from the Biden debate), but he has to keep his cool. Let her talk. The more she talks, the worse she will look. An ability to rebut her in real-time with substance will go much further than taking the bait on some perceived sleight. 

I understand that is not Trump's natural state. He wants to punch his opponent at all times, but he successfully held back during the first debate and it ended Biden's candidacy. That is the winning strategy again. 

Lastly, everyone needs to accept that no matter what happens tonight, CNN, the Times, MSNBC, etc. are going to proclaim Harris' performance as brilliant. That's irrelevant. What's relevant is letting her expose her radicalism to the American people. If that happens, Trump wins.