While Democrats continue to overdose on hopium surrounding the generic ballot, several of the major races leading into November are tilting towards Republicans. As RedState reported, a recent Trafalgar poll, which has a very good track record in state-wide polling, showed Mehmet Oz gaining on John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, putting the race at just a 1.8 percent spread.
Now, Trafalgar has dropped the next survey in its ongoing series out of Arizona, and much to the consternation of Democrats everywhere, Kari Lake now holds a fairly substantial lead over Katie Hobbs.
ARIZONA GOVERNOR POLLING TRENDS By Trafalgar Group
(R) Kari Lake 46.5% (+0.7)
(D) Katie Hobbs 45.8%
(R) Kari Lake 50% (+4.4)
(D) Katie Hobbs 45.6%
✅ 3.7 point swing towards Kari Lake pic.twitter.com/kJ2VEYflm7
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 18, 2022
I don’t want to brag, but I’m pretty sure I was the first conservative commentator to start calling Katie Hobbs the quintessential “Karen” way back in the mid-summer, and the label is sticking. No other candidate in the current election cycle gives off as many “let me speak to the manager” vibes as she does. Her scolding, cowering personality isn’t playing well with Arizona voters, and it doesn’t take a political science degree to figure out why.
For example, here’s Hobbs lying about miscarriages in an attempt to make abortion the primary issue.
When I had a miscarriage, I needed surgery to protect my own health. That lifesaving treatment was the same procedure that’s commonly used for abortions — a procedure that Kari Lake wants to criminalize. As Governor, I won't let that happen.
— Katie Hobbs (@katiehobbs) September 18, 2022
I guess Hobbs thinks she’s running in New York because her entire campaign has been so completely out-of-touch with what Arizonans care about that it borders on parody. That’s not to say there aren’t hardcore liberals in the state who make abortion the end-all-be-all of politics, but most voters are far more concerned about the fact that inflation is soaring, interest rates are skyrocketing, the stock market is crashing, and the border is in crisis. And outside of maybe Texas, there is no other state in the country that is more animated by what is going on at the Southern border than Arizona.
Lake has hit those issues hard, and she’s remained laser-focused on her message. The economy, crime, and the border are part of nearly every public statement she makes while Hobbs is obsessing over whether it’ll be legal to kill a baby before 15 weeks. Worse, the Democrat has refused to debate, making her appear even less respectful of the voters she hopes to win to her side.
In short, Hobbs is completely on the defensive right now, and regardless of what happens in the national environment (I’m still bullish on the GOP doing well), it appears Lake has successfully localized her election, with Arizonans showing they care most about things that actually affect their daily lives. Hobbs, being your typical AWFL, can only keep mumbling about abortion. We’ll see how that works out for her in November.