The race for senate in Pennsylvania is heating up. Democrat John Fetterman has finally agreed to a debate, though it won’t occur until just two weeks before the election. Voters will have already been casting ballots for a month at that point, and as I opined in a recent piece, I fully expect Fetterman to back out given his current mental state.

On the other side, Republican Mehmet Oz has been landing blows. Recently, Fetterman was exposed for hiding the fact that he owns eight additional properties. He had previously made Oz’s owning of multiple properties a key attack line, so the hypocrisy was palpable when the news broke. Numerous videos have also shown Fetterman struggling to process his thoughts and form sentences at his infrequent public events.

Is all of that finally paying dividends for Oz? A new poll says yes, with him closing the gap to just one point.

PENNSYLVANIA SENATE POLLING TRENDS By Trafalgar Group

August 18
(D) John Fetterman 48.6% (+4.9)
(R) Mehmet Oz 43.5%

September 15
(D) John Fetterman 47.7% (+1.8)
(R) Mehmet Oz 45.9%

✅ 3.1 point shift towards Dr. Oz pic.twitter.com/v7qkdzWtXW

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 16, 2022

Over the last month, Oz has enjoyed a 3.1 point swing again Fetterman, bringing the race firmly into jump ball territory. Some of that is Oz increasing his support while some of it is Fetterman losing support. Either way, the further below 50 percent the Democrat falls, the more in danger he is given the penchant for undecided voters to break for the out-of-power party during a first mid-term.

The question is whether this is an aberration or if Fetterman is really starting to flounder. I suspect it’s the latter. His refusal to hold a debate before early voting starts has become a major issue, and it leaves questions in the minds of voters that aren’t answered by a handful of extremely uncomfortable public appearances.

Regardless, Fetterman has to be sweating now. He felt he was cruising to victory, able to hide behind his faux online personality. But the meme campaign is over, and voters want answers he’s not providing. Oz is making hay on his end by pressing key issues. If he can consolidate Republican voters, some of which are still angry over Kathy Barnette’s loss, he can win this race. Things are really just getting started.