The chances are low—really low—but it’s not impossible. There are several scenarios where the presidential candidates could each garner 269 electoral votes. If you think the mood in this country is insane now, just imagine how ramped up folks would get if that happens.
The website 270 To Win reveals the different ways it could go down:
- Trump wins every state he captured in 2020, plus Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Harris wins every state Joe Biden won in 2020, plus North Carolina.
- Trump wins every state he won in 2020, plus Michigan and Pennsylvania, while Harris holds every other state Biden won in 2020.
- Trump wins every state he won in 2020, plus Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania, while Harris wins every state Biden won in 2020 plus North Carolina.
The most bonkers election outcome possible is that we see a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College.
— Primo Radical (@PrimoRadical) November 5, 2024
You can imagine how the nation would react to that, and the subsequent process for Congress picking a winner. pic.twitter.com/2JhEZt08XW
According to the poll analysts at 538, the odds of a tie are just 0.2 percent. But what would happen? We wouldn’t know until January who the next president would be:
The 12th Amendment lays out how a president would be chosen if the Electoral College finishes 269-269.
Under the law, the newly elected House of Representatives would meet on Jan. 6, 2025, to count the electoral votes.
Once no candidate is confirmed to have a majority of electoral votes, House lawmakers will break the tie, with each state’s delegation getting a single vote and a simple majority of 26 states needed to become the 47th president.
While lawmakers will technically be able to list their top three candidates, in practice the choice will be a straight shot between Trump and Harris.
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What about the vice president? That would be up to the newly elected Senate where each senator would get one vote. There’s even the possibility of a split ticket:
The Senate would have to choose between the two highest-scoring vice presidential candidates in the Electoral College, either Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) or Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.
The rules mean that there is a scenario where the president and vice president could be from different parties.
Now that would be interesting. But it’s possible there could be even more chaos:
What if Congress does not reach an agreement?
If the House does not select a president by noon Jan. 20, the person elected as vice president by the Senate would act as president while the representatives continued to vote.
The speaker of the House would serve as president if both the Senate and House had not come to a decision, under the Presidential Succession Act of 1947.
Neither scenario has happened in American history.
Buckle up, folks; it’s going to be an interesting night.
It’s already been one of the craziest election cycles in modern times, with the incumbent president forced from his reelection campaign by his own party, followed by a new Democrat nominee who failed to earn a single primary vote. What’s to say it can’t get even a little more insane?
Let's hope none of that happens and that we're soon celebrating a Trump victory.
🚨BREAKING: REALCLEARPOLITICS JUST PROJECTED RIGHTFUL PRESIDENT TRUMP WINNING 287 ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES!
— Bo Loudon (@BoLoudon) November 5, 2024
While this is TREMENDOUS, don't let it discourage you from VOTING TRUMP!
GO VOTE FOR TRUMP AND STAY IN LINE!
WE MUST MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! pic.twitter.com/n9A9t03hGT
If you're looking for hopeful signs, meanwhile, perhaps this is one:
Whoa. @FLOTUS just voted in Delaware.
— Roxanne Hoge (@RoxanneHoge) November 5, 2024
Is her outfit a sign? Feel like it's a sign. 😏
Nice suit, btw! pic.twitter.com/31aiZ52OsL
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