Could the GOP Retire Itself Into the Minority in 2026? Who's In and Who's Out for the Midterms

As the 2026 midterm elections loom, Republicans are faced with that tidbit of "traditional" wisdom that the party in the White House tends to lose seats. Lawmakers will soon be heading home for Christmas, where they will not only spend the holidays with their families, but will also make crucial decisions about 2026 and their political futures. While we love to say that every election is the most important one, for Republicans, maintaining control of both the House and Senate is important in a variety of ways. When the election dust settles, who will be left standing to maintain that GOP majority?

Upwards of 20 House Republicans are expected to announce their retirements in the coming weeks.

The report notes that most of the retirements are coming from “safe seats” for the Republican Party, but could still place additional stress on House Speaker Mike Johnson and the… pic.twitter.com/auQFc8DpMY
— Velstrad 24 (@velstrad24) December 8, 2025

The report notes that most of the retirements are coming from “safe seats” for the Republican Party, but could still place additional stress on House Speaker Mike Johnson and the party’s majority in the House of Representatives, which currently sits at 220-213.

House members are calling it quits in Congress at a record pace, as 40 members, around 10 percent, have already said they will not run for reelection in 2026. That number may rise after the Christmas break. Senate retirements are about even with the 2024 cycle, but in the House of Representatives, retirements are happening at the largest rate in more than ten years. At the same point in 2023, there were only 30 House retirements. In 2018, Republicans lost 42 seats in the House, with 32 of those saying they would not seek reelection in 2017. Currently, Republicans are ahead of Democrats in retirement announcements, 23 to 17.

One odd factor may be the trend of mid-decade redistricting. Redistricting should be favorable to the GOP in places like Texas, where the Supreme Court recently cleared the way for the use of the state's new map, and Republicans stand to gain five House seats. Florida has also started the redistricting debate, and Missouri's new map has the GOP picking up one seat.

The other good news for Republicans is that many of the seats where GOP House members are retiring are considered safe Republican seats. Only Rep. Don Bacon's (NE-02) seat is expected to go to Democrats in 2026. Some are running for other offices, including Reps. Elise Stefanik (NY-21) and Nancy Mace (SC-01), who are running for governor of their respective states. Back in Texas, four GOP House members, Morgan Luttrell (08), Jodey Arrington (19), Troy Nehls (22), and Michael McCaul (10), have all said they will not run in 2026. Interestingly, none of them faced serious primary challengers.

Codify all of Trump's Executive Orders.

ALL of them.

And I suggest you do it BEFORE the 2026 midterm election.
— Heartland Grump (@heartland_grump) December 5, 2025

While the Democrat party may be attempting to purge itself of dinosaurs like Reps. Nancy Pelosi (CA-11), 85, and Jerry Nadler (NY-12), 78, there are a few Republicans who have not taken the hint. Reps. Hal Rogers (KY-05), 87, and John Carter (TX-31), 84, have stated they will run for reelection.

ALSO READ: Republicans Must Learn to Walk and Chew Gum When Trump Is Not on the Ballot

But if Republicans have not gotten the memo that 2026 is not your father's midterm election, they had better look it up. Democrats are angry and desperate, a dangerous combination. Trump Derangement Syndrome drives everything they do, including election strategy. With a House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries (NY-08), the Trump agenda comes to a screeching halt if, for no other reason, than the fact that Democrats will be completely immersed in impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump, and likely Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, to name a few. Besides "Trump-proofing" the country, they would also likely jam through legislation such as expanding access to the Affordable Care Act to include illegal immigrants, climate change, and much more. The American people will once again take a backseat to their lunacy.

If there was ever an election where, for not just Republicans, but the whole country, conventional wisdom should go the way of pet rocks and mullets, it is the 2026 midterms.

🚨 Stunning new poll finds Republicans LEAD the 2026 Congressional midterms over Democrats by +4 points, 48%-44% — RMG 🤯

The GOP must ENERGIZE the base and move full-steam ahead with redistricting. Do not let Dems obstruct the last two years of Trump's term!
— mandala (@mandala_mandy) December 7, 2025

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