Since the Democrats swept the 2025 mid-midterms, the MSM is already talking about an “upset” in the 35 midterm U.S. Senate races.
The RCP average is now flashing “red”, with President Trump at 42.3% approval, versus 54.7% disapproval. Trump has been at the dangerous 43% approval number since November 3 (which is unfortunate, since that is also my birthday ☹). This is Bush territory, and as such, it could lead to a “blue wave” if it is left unchecked.
Still, even a blue wave may not be enough for the Democrats in the Senate, who need to win a net four seats to capture that chamber. Most of the Republican seats are in heavily Republican territory. Only one Democrat leaning state has a Republican Senator, and one other Republican state is competitive. But the other Republican held states are all in - at least - solidly Republican areas. There are also a handful of Democrat held seats that are competitive or potentially competitive.
Now, let’s turn to specific news from the races:
Alaska: Dan Sullivan / 54% R / Likely R
The Democrats believe that if former Democrat Rep. Mary Peltola jumps into the race against Sen. Dan Sullivan, then it will become competitive. While some of the polling does show that, the fact is that Alaska went for Donald Trump three straight times, with the Democratic presidential candidate at most earning 42.7% of the vote. Also, the Democrats have only won one race for the Senate since 1974, and that race was a result of the incumbent Republican being sabotaged by Democrat lawfare that (barely) cost him his seat. Peltola would be much smarter to run for the open governorship in Alaska.
Florida (special): Ashley Moody / Appointed in 2025 / Likely R
Sen. Moody is cruising to a full term, with her up 49% to 38% over the leading Democrat, who herself is a political nobody. In a state that is now solidly Republican at the federal level, with Donald Trump winning the state by double digits and the GOP having a huge registration advantage, the Democrats will have to be incredibly lucky to win.
Georgia: Jon Ossoff / 50.62% D / Lean D
In the Republican primary, Rep. Mike Collins has an almost ten-point edge over Rep. Buddy Carter and Coach Derek Dooley. All three candidates are serious and will have the necessary funding. With three candidates, there may be an appearance of the Feingold Maneuver. But whoever the Republican winner is, he will be the underdog to Sen. Ossoff, who has raised $54 million and is still sitting on $21.3 million.
Maine: Susan Collins / 50.98% R / Tilt R
Surprisingly, the third candidate in the Senate Democrat primary has switched to a House race, where he will be the underdog in the Republican leaning district. This leaves two candidates – the two-term elderly Maine governor and the Nazi. So far, the Nazi is leading. The Nazi is also leading Sen. Collins, although in the 2020 race, Collins was behind in all the polling and still won solidly. Collins has a lead over the elderly governor, though. Nevertheless, the Democrats should probably not go full Nazi in this race, considering Collins has a unique bipartisan appeal in the state and she is the current Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, which gives her a ton of money to spread around. The turnout advantage we saw in the mid-midterms probably warrants a slight reduction in Sen. Collins' chances, however.
Michigan: Gary Peters (retiring) / Lean D
The Democrats face a tough primary, with a Radical Muslim Bernie Bro facing off against a moderate Democrat Congresswoman, and a third candidate who shifts back and forth between the two. All three are raising big bucks. Meanwhile, 2024 Senate nominee and former Congressman Mike Rogers rakes in his own money and leads all three in the polling. However, this race will be very susceptible to national trends, which have moved towards the Democrats, and even a slight Democrat lean in the turnout could be fatal to Rogers. Also, any mistakes could have far-reaching results.
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (retiring) / Lean D
The GOP leadership and conservative groups seem to be uniting around the Heir Force General, former Sen. John Sununu, whose father and brother were both popular New Hampshire governors, and who himself served several terms in the House and one term in the Senate (in this very seat). He is the solid favorite over his primary opponent, former Sen. Scott Brown of Massachusetts, who has rubbed some New Hampshire GOP voters the wrong way. But Sununu, who is trying to be the first U.S. Senator to win back a Senate seat since Slade Gorton of Washington, is also a solid underdog to Democrat Congressman Chris Pappas, who represents half the state and has the advantage of a normally Democrat leaning state coupled with the midterm Democrat turnout advantage.
North Carolina: Thom Tillis (retiring) / Tilt D
Not much has changed in this race, where former Gov. Roy Cooper has a slim edge over former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley. Cooper’s slight edge comes from the normal GOP advantage in federal races being counterbalanced by Cooper’s political strength in the state and the fact that the Democrats should have an edge nationally as the “out party.” At the same time, Whatley will be running against Cooper’s soft-on-crime policies, which led to a horrific murder. However, if the Democratic edge does broaden into a blue wave, Cooper may surge.
Ohio (special): Jon Husted / Appointed in 2025 / Likely R
The MSM seems especially excited about this race, where Democrat former Sen. Sherrod Brown is a very narrow underdog to appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted. Both candidates have a history of winning statewide elections – although Brown has lost two, one of them in 2024 – and are raising large amounts of money. But Brown is much older and must deal with the fact that Ohio has become a solidly Republican state in federal elections. Even with a Democrat turnout advantage, Brown probably needs Husted to make mistakes to buck the trends and the history – see Slade Gorton, above – to return to the Senate.
Texas: John Cornyn / 53.51% R / Lean R
Any of the three candidates could win the GOP nomination, thanks to the Feingold Maneuver. Attorney General Ken Paxton currently has a narrow edge over Sen. John Cornyn, with Rep. Wesley Hunt trailing. A Trump endorsement will probably decide this race, if he chooses to make one. But the Democrats have their own primary, so they won’t benefit from any GOP chaos. With rumors that Democrat Rep. Jasmine Crockett will enter, another three-way race may develop there. Paxton has some vulnerabilities in the general election, which is why the Democrats are optimistic about this race; still, none of the three Democrats are guaranteed victors against him, and each Democrat has vulnerabilities. Money will not be a problem for any candidate. With Trump having carried Texas in 2024 56% to 42%, the Democrats need a blue wave and some GOP mistakes to win this race.
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