California has, for years, been a major focal point for immigration, both legal and illegal. The state's and several of the state's major cities "sanctuary" status is to blame for some of that, and the fact that the once-Golden state has been historically pretty generous with taxpayer-funded benefits to all and sundry, regardless of immigration status, is another.
But now, new enrollment by immigrants in California's schools is plummeting. And, while correlation does not equal causation, there are nevertheless some interesting correlations to note.
Across California, the number of new immigrant students or “newcomers” in their first three years in the U.S. has fallen sharply over the past two years. The drop follows an abrupt decrease in border crossings in early 2025 amid changes in federal immigration policy.
The decline has been particularly pronounced in some large urban districts already reeling from years of enrollment losses. In Oakland Unified, more than 1,300 new students arrived each year from other countries from 2017-18 to 2024-25, with the exception of 2020-21 during the pandemic. In 2025-26, 498 new immigrant students enrolled for their first year.
This school year, only 212 new immigrant students had enrolled for the first time as of Oct. 7. Most of them are elementary students.
Now, take note of this sentence:
"The drop follows an abrupt decrease in border crossings in early 2025 amid changes in federal immigration policy." That would imply at least a correlation between the Trump administration's crackdown on illegal alien border crossings and the drop in enrollment, which both seem to have begun around the same time — early in 2025. That was when the crackdown started, and that's when the number of illegal border crossings dropped to near-zero.
Oakland in particular is seeing these numbers plummet.
The decline has been particularly pronounced in some large urban districts already reeling from years of enrollment losses. In Oakland Unified, more than 1,300 new students arrived each year from other countries from 2017-18 to 2024-25, with the exception of 2020-21 during the pandemic. In 2025-26, 498 new immigrant students enrolled for their first year.
This school year, only 212 new immigrant students had enrolled for the first time as of Oct. 7. Most of them are elementary students.
Now, were we in a face-to-face conversation with someone who saw this as a concern, the only sensible reply to this presentation of numbers is this: "And therefore, what?" This drop in immigrant student enrollments sure seems to be aligned temporally with the drop in illegal alien border crossings. That being the case, the next reply is, "Why are the California taxpayers obligated to educate, at their expense, the children of people who are in the state and the country in violation of our immigration laws?"
That's a rhetorical question, and one that California can't answer without admitting that, yes, they are spending taxpayer's money to educate the kids of illegal aliens. And, honestly, it's only marginally better to spend taxpayer money on the kids of people who gamed our "refugee" system to gain entry, either.
Right now, the best estimate of children in California who are illegal aliens or the children of illegal aliens (including anchor babies) is around 125,000. These kids, who admittedly are mostly here through no fault of their own, are nevertheless being educated at the expense of California taxpayers. Their parents or guardians are, in effect, being rewarded for breaking American immigration law; this is a powerful incentive to keep people illegally crossing our border, and in 2029, if the 2028 presidential election goes wrong, those doors will be thrown wide open again.
This report notes that immigrant student enrollment is dropping, while only hinting at the Trump administration's crackdown on illegal border crossings is at least partially to blame. No, correlation doesn't equal causation — always. But here, in this matter, there's a lot of smoke for there not to be a fire in there someplace.
Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump, illegal immigration into our great country has virtually stopped. Despite the radical left's lies, new legislation wasn't needed to secure our border, just a new president.
Help us continue to report the truth about the president's border policies and mass deportations. Join RedState VIP and use promo code FIGHT to receive 60% off your membership.
Join the Conversation
VIP members get the ability to comment on articles.