American Workers Now Winning As Illegal Immigration Slows

As someone once famously said, in politics, most especially in elections, "It's the economy, stupid." There are other factors, of course, but most people vote with their wallets, and there are signs that the Trump administration's immigration crackdowns are having some economic benefits. Key among those benefits? Housing costs were inflated by the presence of illegal aliens, and should now be starting to moderate.

Border Enforcement Does Affect American Workers’ Wallets https://t.co/A1x15Kjsyw
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) June 17, 2026

The link goes to a Wall Street Journal column by James Carter, former deputy assistant Treasury secretary (2002-06) and a deputy undersecretary of labor (2006-07). Mr. Carter's piece here is worth consideration. Key points, first, in employment, where wages are rising in key sectors:

Take construction, which relies heavily on immigrant labor. Wages in the sector grew at roughly 2.5% annually between 2010 and 2017. Now BLS data shows construction wages growing at 3.1% through the first quarter of 2026—above the sector’s pre-enforcement baseline, even as broader private-sector wage growth cooled to 3.4%.

It would be accurate to say that construction relies heavily on cheap, illegal immigrant labor - but no longer. Now these jobs are presumably being filled by Americans, who are being paid a healthier wage.

Trump to Congress: Stop Talking and Start Acting on My Housing Affordability Plan

Housing costs, though, may be the big gain.

Housing is more complicated, which advocates of immigration enforcement should acknowledge. A 2024 study by Troup Howard, Mengqi Wang and Dayin Zhang found that heightened enforcement reduced residential construction workforces in affected counties, resulting in fewer homes built and higher prices.
But demand is shifting too. A recent Federal Reserve working paper finds that unauthorized immigration accounted for roughly 30% of house-price growth and 20% of rent growth in the average metro area between 2021 and 2024. As that demand eases, so should price pressure. Zillow reports national mortgage costs at their best level since August 2022, with affordability expected to improve in 49 of the 50 largest metros by year’s end.

The demand side would seem to be the key player here. In too many of our urban and suburban areas, housing is too expensive for many young people, and now we learn that people in the country illegally may well have driven the costs of private homes up by a third, and of rentals by about a fifth, which almost certainly overwhelms the supply end of the picture. We see this played out every day, in millions of American families; I have described before how it has affected my own family, wherein our two youngest daughters - both in their 30s - can only afford a nice rented townhome in a good neighborhood in a suburb of Denver because they are a three-person household, with our youngest living with her sister and brother-in-law.

This scenario is no doubt played out across the nation, in cities and suburbs, and now we see that illegal immigration may have been a major factor.

The Trump administration's immigration crackdown was initially couched in terms of crime, as in the president's vow to expel the worst first. But we are seeing now the economic benefits of controlled immigration as well: Housing costs beginning to drop, wages beginning to rise. That's a key message for the midterms.

Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump’s leadership and bold policies, America’s economy is back on track.

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