Oil-Rich Alberta Now Preparing Vote on Leaving Canada

Canada's prairie provinces, including Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, are in some ways more like the western United States than the rest of Canada. They are more independent, more reliant on agriculture and the energy sector, with lower populations, and with a population more inclined to conservative viewpoints.

For some time now, the energy-rich province of Alberta has been making noises about seceding from Canada. Now, it looks like that may come to a vote. The Telegraph's Michael Taube has some thoughts on that.

Alberta is about to decide whether it wants to stay in Canada or take steps to become an independent nation.
The provincial premier, Danielle Smith, recently announced that Alberta will hold a referendum to determine its future in Canada. The question to be asked will be: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”
I’ve known Smith for nearly 30 years. She’s an intelligent and talented former policy wonk, political commentator and talk radio host with conservative and libertarian leanings. Her position on this referendum is not with the separatist cause. “I have been clear with Albertans from the start that I am in support of remaining in Canada,” she told reporters in Calgary. “That has and will continue to be the position of my government and my caucus.”
Nevertheless, the Alberta premier realises this discussion about separatism, as difficult and painful as it might be, needs a resolution. Separatist sentiment in Alberta, and indeed in the other western provinces, is due to perceived favouritism by the federal government to eastern Canadian provinces like Ontario and Quebec. The people of Alberta, Smith told the media, “want to settle it once and for all”.

That may be easier said than done. The referendum is only the first step. If such a referendum passes, then there is a federal review, in which the House of Commons evaluates the results of the vote, ensuring that the question was clear and that a clear majority voted to secede. Then there are negotiations between Ottawa and the breakaway province to determine such things as the division of national land, where the borders will be, what the status of Native communities will be, questions of citizenship, defense, and so forth. The last legal step actually requires a constitutional amendment, which requires a majority of the Parliament to approve, as well as at least 7 percent of the provinces, representing at least 50 percent of Canada's population; those more urbanized, high-population eastern provinces are given an effective veto over the whole thing.

That's if Alberta's referendum passes at all.

It’s unlikely that Alberta’s referendum question will succeed. If history serves as a guide, the pro-Canada side led by Smith and others will have a bigger turnout and quell the separatist forces. The notion of Alberta’s independence and Canada splitting apart isn’t nearly as absurd as you may think, however.

Here's the thing: Quebec has its own, home-grown independence movement. An attempt by Alberta may lead to the Quebecois separatist movement gaining some new legs.

Is the 51st State Dream Closer to Reality? A Secession Movement in Canada Is Gaining Traction

And, if Alberta holds this vote while Donald Trump is still president, they should expect an offer to join the USA as the 51st state if the vote passes, which is sure to toss a bowl of poutine onto Ottawa's hockey rink.

While this is interesting stuff, and while we'd all like to eat more duty-free Alberta beef, it's pretty unlikely to happen. If it did, though, Saskatchewan and Manitoba may follow; now, if we could just get British Columbia and the Yukon Territory on board to join the USA, then we could drive the entire Alaska Highway without going through Customs. That wouldn't be the worst thing ever.

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