Solar flares, often known as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), can have lots of different effects on us here, 93 million miles away from the sun. Those effects can lead to some amazing lights in the sky, the auroras, which we are lucky to see regularly here in Alaska. They can also fry electrical wiring. It's happened already; the Carrington Event in 1859 was the largest geomagnetic storm in recorded history, and was almost certainly caused by one or more CMEs. In 1859, though, the only electrical grid in place was the telegraph system, which suffered severe and widespread damage.
Now, though, new techniques may enable scientists studying the sun to give us some warning of events like these.
How the Forecasting System Works
The scientists analyzed nearly 50 years of data (1975–2025) from satellites that monitor the Sun’s X-ray emissions. They discovered two key patterns:
1. They identified specific zones on the Sun where magnetic energy builds up over time, making those areas more likely to produce powerful eruptions.
2. They found a rhythmic pattern in solar activity based on two natural cycles: a 1.7-year cycle and a 7-year cycle. When these cycles line up in certain ways, the risk of superflares increases significantly.
Using advanced mathematical techniques and machine learning, the team combined these patterns to forecast high-risk time periods and locations on the Sun. For the current solar cycle (Solar Cycle 25), their model predicts two main danger windows:
• Mid-2025 through mid-2026 (focused on the Sun’s southern hemisphere, between 5°S–25°S latitude)
• Early-to-mid 2027 (focused on the Sun’s northern hemisphere, between 10°N–30°N latitude)
So, the cycles they measured are 1.7 years and 7 years; that wouldn't preclude other, longer cycles. But this is a start point.
Implications:
Lead researcher Dr. Victor M. Velasco Herrera, from the National Autonomous University of Mexico, explained:
“Traditional solar forecasting struggles with these extreme events because they happen so quickly and unpredictably. Our method gives space weather operators and satellite managers one to two years of advance warning about when conditions are most dangerous. This critical lead time allows them to prepare and protect communications systems, power grids, and astronaut safety.”
Dr. Velasco Herrera also noted the relevance for space missions:
“NASA is right to postpone the Artemis II mission to the Moon until March, but given how active the Sun is right now, our forecasts suggest that delaying the launch until the end of 2026 may be a much safer decision.”
All to the good.
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Here's the thing: While most of these geomagnetic storms may well result only in people as far south as Dallas getting to see the whip and flicker of the auroras that we sort of take for granted here in the Great Land, another Carrington Event could have much more far-reaching effects - like blowing out a major portion of our grid. Such an event could take the United States and, indeed, much of the planet, back to the 1850s, technology-wise. The problem is that we'd still have our 2026 population, most of whom lack the necessary skills to survive in a world set at 1850. You're talking about a major societal collapse, mass starvation, and deaths possibly in the billions.
That's not a good thing, but this new work sounds a hopeful note; at least, if we get a little warning, we can do what can be done to take enough of the grid offline to try to prevent a total loss. The problem is, even totally shutting down the grid won't prevent all ill effect. The grid needs to be upgraded, hardened, and decentralized to ensure best protection against this event that one day, sooner or later, will come around.
But that's a story for another time.
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