China is in trouble.
The Middle Kingdom has, since World War 2, changed a lot. Chairman Mao's takeover resulted in the deaths of millions, but under the Chinese Communist Party, the country industrialized - sort of. Their primary output to this day is largely cheap consumer goods, often of questionable quality. They are not innovators so much as inventive copiers. And, as a result (in part) of the recently-abandoned one-child policy, they are on the edge of a demographic precipice.
A new report makes it look as though they have already stepped off.
From the Japan Times:
China has just announced that births in 2025 plunged to 7.92 million, from 9.54 million the previous year — and almost half of what was projected (14.33 million) when the one-child policy was repealed in 2016. In fact, China’s births have fallen to a level comparable to that of 1738, when the country’s total population was only about 150 million.
Having finally acknowledged the country’s grim demographic reality, Chinese authorities introduced new pro-natalist policies last year, expecting the number of births to rebound. But the decline in the fertility rate was inevitable, like a boulder rolling down a hill. Even if it can be pushed back uphill, it will not happen quickly.
China's population crash isn't coming. It's already happening. Once these kinds of demographic collapses begin, they seldom reverse themselves. These "pro-natalist" policies will almost certainly be too little, too late. China has, almost certainly, gone too far down this road.
Read More: Is This the Twilight of China?
China's one-child policy, really a diktat, was repealed in 2016 - ten years ago, more or less. But the result remains: Several generations of young men who, thanks to abandonment, adoption, or outright sex-selective abortions, have no prospects for marriage and family. Many of these young men are now military-age, and many of them, we should admit, have been placed in the United States: Many illegally, many carrying who knows what thoughts and instructions in their heads.
China isn't the only country facing this problem. The nations of Europe, including Russia and Japan, are also facing demographic crises.
Read More: Russia Is Now Taking Steps to Address Their Demographic Collapse, but It Won't Work
Russia's problem is similar, but in reverse; they are throwing a generation of young men into the fire in Ukraine, and it's costing them dearly - maybe permanently. On Russia, last year I wrote:
A big part of Russia's problem is economic and political instability. Nibbling at the edges of the issue with items like free school lunches and "hero-mother" medals won't have any noticeable effect in a country that is suffering under sanctions from the United States and which is embroiled in a war that is slowly grinding up many of the young men. Russia has been through this before; as recently as the Great Patriotic War (World War 2), the Soviet Union lost as many as 26 million people, including eight million military members. That's a hard thing to come back from, and Vladimir Putin is putting the country through a somewhat scaled-down version of this again. Russia can't afford to lose so many of its young men in this thing, any more than Ukraine can.
While it was inconceivable only a few short years ago, it’s beginning to look like the collapse of Russia, China, and much of Europe as cultures may be beginning, starting with China. Now it’s possible that some new Chinese, or Russian, or European nation may arise from the ashes, but I’m wondering about the likelihood of any such resurgence; the whole thing will depend on how ugly and destructive the collapse is. It seems far more likely that in the case of China, it will revert to what it once was: A vast, sparsely populated territory ruled by local strongmen, warlords, and bandit chieftains. No more industrial power. No more huge cities; they will be abandoned and, in time, collapse. The local economies will revert to largely agricultural and small shop crafts. Russia may well be in for a return to the same state, or at best, a pre-industrial Russia; a vast land with few people and no global presence. The only real advantage either country has is minerals and energy extraction; Russia's oil and gas and China's rare earth and other minerals may help them stave off a collapse, for a while.
Europe? That's a different story. Without a dramatic policy change, yesterday, Europe is doomed in another generation, perhaps two, to become a series of Islamic caliphates - and we all know what standard of living those places have.
Here’s my concern, though, with Russia and China: What happens when a dying former superpower, one that has a big stockpile of nuclear weapons, approaches collapse? What happens when the leaders of that country approach desperation?
Now, we see that China may be approaching that pass sooner than we thought.
Here in the United States, we're a little better off. Our mean population age is younger than the places facing the worst crises: Europe, China, Japan, and Russia. Our population may be maintained in part by legal immigration, and with an immigration policy aimed at bringing in people with valuable skills, people who want to assimilate, to become American, we can shelter ourselves from this kind of demographic bubble-burst.
As the saying goes, the future belongs to those who show up for it. It's looking like the Chinese people have decided not to bother.
