There's an old principle in economics, originally formulated by economist Herb Stein, which became known as "Stein's Law." That law states, simply, that if something cannot go on forever, it will stop. It ties in nicely with another economic law, this one coined by science-fiction writer Robert Heinlein, which states (rather bluntly) "There Ain't No Such Thing as a Free Lunch," usually written as the acronym TANSTAAFL.
The state of New York, with its plans to mandate "Net Zero" in carbon emissions, is about to get a hard lesson on these two laws, especially Stein's Law. At his blog The Manhattan Contrarian, writer and commentator Francis Menton has some thoughts.
When New York passed its utopian Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act back in 2019, it set mandatory targets for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from the state’s energy consumption. But none of the mandates were scheduled to take effect prior to 2030. The earliest mandates were: 70% of electricity from “renewables” by 2030, and 40% overall reduction in GHG emissions by the same year. (Still more ambitious mandates were also set for 2040, followed by a “net zero” mandate for 2050.). These dates all seemed so terribly far away — plenty of time for somebody to invent some new gizmos in the off chance that new technology might be needed to hit the goal.
Our legislators, innumerate to a person, had bought into the fantasy — peddled by lightweight academics like Mark Jacobson and Robert Howarth, and by grifting promoters like the American Wind Energy Association and investment bank Lazard — that wind and solar were now the cheapest way to make electricity. To abolish the evil fossil fuels, all that was needed was some political will.
They also needed a serious disconnect from reality. But as it is, the Empire State can't even manage to come up with a plan as to how this was to be achieved.
There actually was one other important deadline in the CLCPA, which was not a deadline for emissions reductions themselves, but rather a deadline for the state Department of Environmental Conservation to publish regulations to direct how the mandated emissions reductions would be achieved. The text from the CLCPA setting this deadline was codified in Section 75-0109 of the state’s Environmental Conservation Law. It states that DEC “shall . . . promulgate rules and regulations to ensure compliance with the statewide emissions reductions limits.” The deadline to promulgate these regulations was January 1, 2024.
January 1, 2024 came and went, and then another year went by, and still no regulations, nor any indication of when or whether they would be forthcoming. A reasonable inference would be that Kathy Hochul (who had taken over as Governor in 2021), or more likely some people on her staff, had figured out that this was not going to work. But they also knew that saying that out loud would be political suicide. Thus, silence.
That was perfectly predictable for anyone who has been watching the antics of various climate scolds in trying for this nebulous "Net Zero" scheme.
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New York has gone from prevarication to prevarication in this affair. And things were about to get worse.
In March, according to Francis Menton, several environmental groups, including the Sierra Club and several New York-based groups, including, curiously, something called the People United for Sustainable Housing Buffalo, filed a proceeding in the state Supreme Court to force the state's Department of Environmental Conservation, or DEC, to force them to comply with the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, or CLCPA, meaning they would have to issue regulations on how to attain Net Zero.
Why not try to mandate that, henceforth, pi would be set to 3, while they are at it?
Here's where Mr. Menton starts to have some fun with this whole fiasco.
Here are a few excerpts from the state’s August 11 letter for your enjoyment:
The draft [Energy Plan] itself shows that a 40% greenhouse gas reduction from 1990 levels by 2030 is infeasible under the Climate Act’s accounting methodology and unaffordable for consumers. . . . [W]hile New York’s current policies and additional action would be expected to raise economywide costs for the state energy system in 2040 by less than 10%, the two net zero scenarios the Board considered raise energy-system costs by at least 35% in 2040, which is $42 billion in additional costs for that year alone. . . . In sum, under even the most aggressive scenario the State Energy Planning Board considered—one that by 2040 would lead to an added $42 billion in annual energy costs—New York would not meet the Climate Act’s 2030 goal. While the draft plan shows that ambitious progress under the Climate Act is achievable, the 2030 goal itself is not practically feasible due to costs consumers simply cannot bear.
So, the state had to be forced to come up with a plan, with regulations, to comply with a law passed by the state legislature - and yet, they are finding out that complying with this law will cost New York consumers - wait for it - $42 billion a year in additional costs, just in 2040 - presumably from at least that point on.
$42 billion. That's "billion," as in, a "B" followed by a "illion." There are a tad short of 20 million people in the state of New York. That's about $2,100 per person. Men, women, kids, the elderly, xes, xers, nine-spirit forest sprites, dust bunnies, everybody. All because of the higher costs of wind and solar power.
There's no mention of nuclear power in all this.
That's not an insignificant ask of the people of New York. Remember, also, that whatever productive people remain in the city of New York will soon be bailing for greener pastures, as the tax-hungry Zohran Mamdani moves to occupy Gracie Mansion.
All of this will, inevitably, come crashing down. The New York legislature and the CLCPA have proven that no matter how hard you believe, no matter how sincere you are, you simply can't legislate away reality. Pi will always be the ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter, 3.14159+ or thereabouts, and wind and solar power will always be economically unviable, given current technology.
Sooner or later, some future assemblage of New York legislators is going to have to deal with this. And I would dearly love to be a fly on the wall when that happens.
