Ukraine May Be Offered 'Article 5-Like Language' in Peace Deal. What's the Catch?

As of this writing, the leaders of various European nations, as well as the European Commission, are gathering in Washington, D.C., to observe talks between Ukraine's President Zelensky and America's President Trump. This could well be a historic day; we understand that President Trump emerged from last week's Alaska Summit with the bones of a deal to end the Russo-Ukrainian War, but we don't yet know what the missing pieces are or what needs to be worked out with President Zelensky. The meeting is expected to begin mid-afternoon, Eastern Daylight Time.

We will, of course, be reporting on these meetings as things develop. In the meantime, some tidbits of information are becoming available; one such is that the proposed deal includes "Article 5-like" protections for Ukraine.

Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff told CNN that Putin agreed to allow the U.S. to provide Ukraine "robust security guarantees."
"We got to an agreement that the United States and other European nations could effectively offer Article 5-like language to cover a security guarantee," in reference to the critical NATO provision," Witkoff said, referencing the military alliance's mutual defense clause, known as Article 5.
NATO’s Article 5 – the cornerstone of the alliance – stipulates that an attack on one member is an assault on all, obligating allies to come to each other’s defense. The proposed security guarantees for Ukraine would not come through NATO, but rather from select European allies in the event of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal.

NATO's Article 5 is the mutual defense clause, commonly referred to as the "an attack on one is an attack on all" clause. It's not precisely that; there's a sort of, well, loophole. Read the full text of Article 5:

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.

Note that language. If such an armed attack occurs, each member will assist the parties being attacked by taking "such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force" in response. Now, a strict reading of that language leaves member nations an out; a member nation may well deem the necessary action to be releasing a statement saying, "Sorry, guys, not our circus, not our monkeys."

As the Historic Day Dawns, Trump Puts Zelensky on Notice: You Could End War 'Almost Immediately'

And, of course, one of President Putin's primary positions, one he probably won't back down on, is that Ukraine will not be admitted into NATO.

It seems pretty certain that any peace deal will include robust security guarantees for Ukraine, including military support; that doesn't necessarily mean boots on the ground, but could well include weapons and other technology support, such as Ukraine has been receiving during the fighting. And, we should remember, the United States will have economic ties to Ukraine that may well have American citizens working in Ukraine.

Here's the thing: There is nothing permanent in these affairs. Any agreement, any security guarantees, will last for a while. But 10 years from now? 20? NATO has been in place since shortly after World War 2, but Ukraine won't be admitted into NATO. And, we might remember, the nations of Europe, whose leaders are gathering in Washington as I write these words, have troubles of their own. For that matter, President Trump won't be in office forever, and a possible future Democrat administration may well leave Ukraine twisting in the breeze.

We're hoping to see a peace deal come out of this. We're hoping to see an agreement that will end the war. That's going to require President Zelensky to accept the loss of some territory. That's not fair, and it's not just, but it's been happening throughout human history, and now it's happening again. Ukraine may have to take this deal, but they would be well-advised to keep an eye fixed on the near future - and they should realize that the only nation Ukraine can count on 100 percent of the time is Ukraine.

Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.

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