In what could be interpreted as a prelude to invasion, Russia has amassed 50,000 troops near Ukraine's northern border. This could be in anticipation of a summer offensive into Ukraine along a different axis, making a response by Ukraine considerably more complicated. Russia is also reportedly preparing an offensive to push Ukrainian troops out of the Kursk region.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has amassed some 50,000 troops on Ukraine’s northern border despite a united push by the U.S. and Ukraine to get Moscow to enter into "meaningful" ceasefire negotiations.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Wednesday warned that Putin is preparing a massive summer offensive in a move to push Ukraine’s troops out of Russia’s Kursk region, and to launch a new invasion into Ukraine’s Sumy region — a mere 200 miles from the capital city of Kyiv.
Zelenskyy reiterated this week that he is ready to hold direct negotiations with Putin and suggested that if the Kremlin chief is uncomfortable with a bilateral meeting, a trilateral meeting could be held with President Donald Trump.
At the moment, Russia still maintains forces in the predominantly Russian-speaking areas of eastern Ukraine, in addition to the Crimea, which Russia seized in 2014. The lines in Ukraine haven't moved much for some time. This new move by Russia could be an attempt to open a second front.
Russia has been bombarding Ukrainian cities in recent days.
Heorhii Tykhyi, spokesman for Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said Thursday during a live chat on X that since the May 16 meeting in Turkey, Russia had launched 120 missiles, more than 1,500 Shahed drones and more than 2,500 guided bombs on Ukrainian cities.
The Sumy regional governor confirmed on Monday that Russian forces had officially taken over four Ukrainian villages near the Ukraine-Russia border which were previously evacuated, and which sat in a "gray zone" that has long been militarily contested following Russia’s February 2022 invasion.
On Wednesday, we noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin had once more released his demands for a negotiated end to the Russo-Ukraine War, and those demands have not changed appreciably since he first offered them. While President Trump is mediating between the warring nations, the chances of a negotiated peace are looking rather shaky at the moment.
See Also: Putin on Ending the War: New Conditions, Same As the Old Conditions
There are a couple of possibilities here.
On the one hand, Russia may be posturing. If so, it's a pretty significant posture, massing 50,000 troops along Ukraine's border. As of this writing, it's not known how these troops are equipped; 50,000 dismounted infantry is one thing, while 50,000 men in the form of armor or mechanized formations is quite a different kettle of fish. The former would seem more likely to be posturing, but the second would be a matter of serious concern.
On the other hand, Russia may be planning to put more pressure on Ukraine by opening up a new front, and it's not at all clear that Ukraine can repel another invasion along a new threat axis. Also, the section of the border that Russia is threatening is only 200 miles from the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. Also, Tsar Vladimir I is on shaky ground in Russia, although much of his more determined opposition is in exile. Putin has dumped enormous resources, not to mention many young men, into his Ukraine war; he may be feeling considerable pressure to, one way or another, bring this thing to a conclusion.
In either case, Putin can't keep 50,000 troops cooling their heels on Ukraine's northern border for long. One way or another, he will have to act, and soon.
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