2024 POTUS Elections: Is New York in Play?

Could Donald Trump take New York's 28 Electoral College votes in the 2024 election? It's unlikely, but this year has seen the republic in uncharted territory in many ways. And things may get stranger yet. Former Republican New York Governor George Pataki thinks that the former president has a shot at the Empire State.

Former New York Gov. George Pataki argued the Empire State is up for grabs this November, warning Democratic voters are coming to terms with the fact that Biden is "screwing up royally" as he flounders in the polls.
Pataki joined "Fox & Friends" to explain why he believes New York could be considered a swing state this election cycle, as Democrats are reportedly concerned behind the scenes that Biden doesn't have what it takes to win, or serve, a second term.
"It's [been] a long time since anybody asked me if New York is a battleground state, but this year I'm getting asked that a lot, and I think it's because it is," Pataki said. "And for that to happen, you need a number of different things. First is you need Democratic voters, a million Democratic voters, to look at their party, look at their candidates, and say, 'We're screwing up royally,' and you have that. You have the chaos at the top of the Democratic ticket."
"You have inflation, you have the migrant crisis in New York City and now in the suburbs, and it's leading a lot of Democrats to say, ‘Hey, wait a second, maybe my party has let me down, and I… should try something different,’" he continued.

Note the issues that Mr. Pataki brings up: Illegal immigration, in particular, has cost New York City dearly. And there can be no question that Democrats, having dragged their party's Overton Window so far to the left as to be in "Here Be Monsters" territory, are screwing up — badly. Add to that an angry, defiant man at the top of the Democrats' presidential ticket who is primed to lose, and badly, and flies off the handle any time anyone questions his fitness.

There's one other thing: If any Republican presidential candidate could take New York's electoral votes, it would be Donald Trump, and if there's any year he could do that, 2024 would be the year.

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There's an opportunity here. Donald Trump has already shown he can draw a substantial crowd in New York, even in the Bronx. In New York, as he has in other places and almost certainly will continue to do, he has forced the Biden campaign to be reactive, not proactive; he is taking the fight to the Democrats on what they assumed to be safe territory. It's never good when your opponent is dictating the terms of the engagement, and that's what Trump and company are doing to the hapless Biden campaign right now. So that makes the New York effort worth doing.

And there's the chance — a slim chance, but greater than zero — that Trump's efforts could peel away enough votes from disaffected Democrats and independents in the New York metropolitan area, combined with votes from the redder upstate and western New York districts, to actually take the state.

The last time a Republican won New York's electoral votes was in Ronald Reagan's historic 49-state reelection landslide in 1984. But if something doesn't change on the Democrats' ticket, Donald John Trump may approach landslide territory himself — and if he takes New York, at that point, it's over. It's still unlikely — but it's no longer impossible.