Donald Trump, like him or hate him, is not like any other political figure in the nation today. Despite all his legal troubles, he maintains a commanding lead in the GOP primary polls (it remains to be seen if that will translate into primary votes), and he is running ahead of Joe Biden (who I'm still guessing won't be the nominee) in general-election polls.
Why? Well, the Washington Examiner's W. James Antle III has some thoughts. Not surprisingly, so do I.
Looking at Trump’s huge polling lead, most analysts have focused on what the other candidates have done wrong. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has been nowhere nearly as competitive with Trump as expected, though their own numbers have persistently shown him closer to the former president than most of the other public polling.
Haley has done the most to take advantage of the Trump-less debates, joining DeSantis in the low double digits in some national surveys and moving into a distant second place in the averages for New Hampshire as well as South Carolina. But she hasn’t really threatened Trump’s lead anywhere and isn’t consistently outpolling DeSantis, and the more sophisticated polls show her lagging behind the Florida governor as Republicans’ second choice.
In a normal election cycle — that is, a cycle with no Trump — it would be difficult to point out anything the other candidates have done wrong, other than to stake out different niches in the general GOP constituency. That's typical in primaries; the candidates have to find some way of standing out. Remember the 2016 primary season, though? There was a huge field of candidates, but once Donald Trump came down the golden escalator and stepped into the race, he kind of sucked all the oxygen out of the room.
But while Trump has issues with self-discipline and holding grudges, he has clearly done some things right:
When Trump can overcome his true nature and think about people besides himself, he becomes formidable. He has sharp, gut-level political instincts that are frequently dulled by his grievances and paranoia. Luckily for his opponents, he can seldom suppress these self-destructive urges for very long.
But in this year’s Republican nomination fight, Trump has so far done a masterful job of making his personal problems sound to the base like something bigger than himself. The indictments and the New York trial aimed at destroying his business empire are about the two-tiered system of justice, which has been weaponized against conservatives as varied as anti-abortion activists and parents protesting at school board meetings. Even the Jan. 6 rioters are, in Trump’s parlance, “hostages,” a sign that views about the 2020 election that are widely held among the rank and file are somehow being criminalized.
Donald Trump has long pushed the idea that "They aren't after me; they are after you; I'm just in the way." That's proving to be a pretty effective message, and it's not a bad way to spin his various legal issues. At times, Trump's go-for-the-throat tactics can work very effectively; only today, my colleague Teri Christoph brought us the story of Trump owning the overturn of Roe v. Wade and how, to be sure, abortion is going to be a major issue in the 2024 campaign:
Trump knows very well that, when faced in 2016 with the idea of Hillary Clinton filling several Supreme Court vacancies, voters flocked to him instead. This is something he is right to brag about, but he'll need to go further with the messaging around abortion. Republicans in Virginia learned the hard way this year that always being on the defense about abortion will lose them votes, so serious 2024 candidates will need to take the Joe Bidens of the world to task for their radical, anti-life stances.
Again, that's something Trump, when he's on his game, does well.
The problem for Trump is when he's not on his game, he can be troublesome. He is notoriously thin-skinned and tends to take everything personally.
Winning the primary is one thing. Winning the general election is another. This will require appealing to more than Trump's diehards and GOP partisans. To win in 2024, Trump — if he is the nominee — will have to appeal to independents and uncommitted voters. He did this in 2016, to everyone's surprise (including mine), and if he wants his second term, he will have to put away the personal grudges and pet peeves and concentrate on doing that again. 2016's simple, pithy, effective message — Make America Great Again — resonated with lots of people. That's what Trump needs to remember and try to do again if he wants his seat at the Resolute Desk back.
See more recent RedState coverage on the 2024 GOP nomination at the links below.
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