Promoted from the diaries by streiff. Promotion does not imply endorsement.
Over at National Review there was this piece Martha McSally’s Arizona GOP Early Vote Lead they had this analysis that had Martha McSally smiling. It’s a short piece so I’m going to use much of it here.
Key takeaways… Lots of people have voted in Arizona:
But 1,230,433 Arizonans have voted early, as of this morning. For perspective, that’s approaching the 1.5 million total votes cast in the state in the 2014 midterm elections.
But, but, but… won’t that benefit the Dems?
There are currently 3.7 million registered voters in Arizona. Of those who have voted early so far, 525,647 are registered Republicans and 413,005 are registered Democrats. Of the remainder, 8,250 are classified “minor parties” and 283,531 are classified “other” or unaffiliated.
If you assume that registered Republicans voted for Senate candidate Martha McSally and registered Democrats voted for Kyrsten Sinema in equal proportions, that gives McSally a 112,642-vote margin. That’s a sizable margin one week away from the election.
I’ll get back to the “minor parties” later. There is some discussion in the article on how Sinema could make up that deficit but the bottom line is that for smaller turnouts:
… like in 2014, with about 1.5 million votes cast, Sinema would need to win the Election Day vote by an overwhelming margin, something like a 73 percent to 27 percent split.
For larger turnouts:
But if Arizona’s statewide turnout is higher, like in 2010, when about 1.75 million people voted, Sinema could attempt to make up that 112,642-vote margin out of another half-million voters. That would require a 62-38 split in Sinema’s favor — less difficult, but still not easy. An NBC News poll found Sinema leading among self-identified independents, 58 percent to 32 percent.
Not sure about you but I kind of like those odds.
Now, back to the Green Party. As reported here Green Party candidate drops out, throws support to Kyrsten Sinema in Senate race the Green party candidate, Angela Green, has dropped out and thrown her support behind the Sinema. Looking at registrations by party there are voter registrations with “8,250 are classified ‘minor parties’” with a lot of voters already voting so I’m going to say that the effect will be negligible.
The article concludes:
But all in all, the McSally campaign and the Arizona GOP have done a phenomenal job of getting registered Republicans to vote early — and that might have given McSally a lead that turns out to be insurmountable.
I couldn’t help to close out with this appeal to get out and vote that our Democratic friends were so helpful in putting together. Thanks to Elizabeth Vaughn for this GOTV reminder.