The rubber is about to meet the road, as people sometimes say, for the soon-to-be-here election season.

If you are not keeping track at home, this Friday is the first of December, with the flip of the calendar from 2023 to 2024 following shortly thereafter. Thus officially begins the presidential primary and caucus season to see who will represent each party in the 2024 presidential election next November.

We have already seen some jockeying over who will hold the primary first for the Democrats, either the traditional first, New Hampshire, or Joe Biden's preferred South Carolina. My colleague Susie Moore touched on this earlier this month.

New Hampshire Dems to DNC: We're Number One! 

While both of the nation's major political parties are mired in internal struggles (ousted speakers, censured representatives, flying elbows, not-so-subtle hints that the frontrunner needs to shuffle off into the sunset), New Hampshire's Democrats took things up another notch on Wednesday, announcing that they would be bucking the Democratic National Committee (DNC), thank you very much, and holding their primary before South Carolina. The Granite State will hold its Democratic primary on January 23rd — just a little over two months away. 

The news comes as tensions have ramped up between New Hampshire Democrats and the Democratic National Committee over the committee’s decision to make South Carolina’s primary the first in the nation on February 3. 

President Biden did not file for the New Hampshire primary, citing obligations to comply with DNC guidance. His supporters in the state have launched a write-in campaign.

What's behind the jockeying on the timing? 

State law requires New Hampshire’s Republican and Democratic primaries to be held at least seven days before any similar contest and gives the secretary of state sole authority to set the date. Like his predecessor did for decades, Secretary of State David Scanlan waited for the dust to settle in other states before announcing his decision.

I have no doubt that Joe Biden pushed for South Carolina to leapfrog New Hampshire in the first-in-the-nation primary stakes just as a political thank you for James Clyburn saving his bacon in 2020. If you recall, Biden lost both the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary and limped into the South Carolina contest, but turned it around there with help from Clyburn.

While there is intrigue with some of the first contests in the country, what we will see in Michigan is a little murkier. 

There's no drama with the date set: It's February 27th for both the Democrats and the Republicans here. I don't even think there's much drama about who will win the Republican primary, being that most polls show former president Donald Trump with a sizeable lead.

Really the only question here is if the Michigan GOP will be bankrupt or not.

First off, here is the ALMOST official list of who will be on the ballot on February 27th, 2024, as noted by the Michigan Secretary of State in a Press Release last week. (I say almost because someone can still get in on the ballot by December 8th.

Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson today released the 2024 presidential primary candidate list as required by Michigan law.

Under state law, the Secretary of State is required to issue a list of individuals “generally advocated by the national news media to be potential presidential candidates” for the Republican and Democratic parties for the presidential primary election.

The Secretary of State has identified the following candidates (listed alphabetically) as potential presidential candidates in 2024:

Democratic Party

• Joe Biden
• Dean Phillips
• Marianne Williamson

Republican Party

• Doug Burgum
• Chris Christie
• Ron DeSantis
• Nikki Haley
• Asa Hutchinson
• Vivek Ramaswamy
• Donald Trump

“Two months ago, I made clear that under Michigan law, anyone generally advocated by the national news media to be a candidate for the Republican or Democratic nomination for president is listed on the ballot for the February 2024 primary unless a court rules otherwise,” Secretary Benson said. “Accordingly, today, as required by statute, we are publicly posting the names of the candidates who qualify under Michigan law to be listed on the ballot as a candidate for president in their respective party’s primary. Barring a court order, these candidates will be included on Michigan’s presidential primary ballot in 2024 unless they withdraw their names from consideration.”

The chairs of the Michigan Democratic and Republican parties now have until 4 p.m. Nov. 14 to add names of other candidates to the candidate list for their party. A candidate identified on either the Secretary of State’s list or the party chairperson’s candidate listing who wishes either to designate a different political party or to withdraw as a candidate has until 4 p.m. Dec. 8 to notify the Michigan Bureau of Elections of that decision.

Candidates not placed on the list by the Secretary of State or the party chairs may gain access to the Michigan presidential primary ballot if they file a nominating petition with the Secretary of State no later than 4 p.m. Dec. 8.

The Michigan presidential primary will be Feb. 27, 2024. Along with the candidates listed on the ballot, voters also may choose “uncommitted” as an option. The deadline for primary election ballots to be sent to military and overseas voters is Jan. 13, 2024, and absent voter ballots must be printed by Jan. 18, 2024.

The Michigan GOP is a dumpster fire, and if you want to try to stop some of the nonsense that Democrats are passing here in this state, you need a functioning state party to try to organize a formidable opposition. 

GOP Is About to Default on Loan Payments, According to Budget Cmte. Member Who Resigned

The Michigan Republican Party is considering how to deal with "imminent default" on its line of credit, according to a resignation letter from a member of the state GOP's budget committee.

The message, obtained Thursday by The Detroit News, reveals the seriousness of the financial problems facing a party in a battleground state a year before the 2024 presidential general election. Kristina Karamo, the Michigan GOP's chairwoman, has struggled to raise money after rising to power in February while railing against the party's "establishment," including past donors.

Jessica Barefield of Livingston County serves on the Michigan Republican Party's state committee, which features about 100 members. She also had been one of 13 Republicans on the influential budget committee, helping to oversee the finances. Barefield said in a resignation letter the budget committee had a Friday "emergency meeting" when the panel "was asked to weigh in on action steps regarding the imminent default on the line of credit," indicating the party is struggling to meet its obligations to pay back its past debts.

Yet we don't have a functioning state party here. We have people that are blowing kisses and speaking in broad platitudes about the grassroots doing grassrootsy things and making it sound like everything is just going to turn up roses in the end. You need boots on the ground to get people elected, and right now, the Michigan GOP can't even afford laces on the boots, let alone the boots themselves.

Now, I truly get it; I've been pounding this rock into the ground for a while, and some are telling me that I'm beating a dead horse. 

 Good.

The approach that most people have taken is to ignore the problem until it's so bad, and then, when the losses roll in, everybody looks around and wonders what the hell happened. This is why we're where we are today, not only in the state of Michigan but the national party, the country itself, the school systems — the list goes on and on.

The longer the current leadership here in Michigan for the Republican Party continues, the longer it will be before a rebuild begins. Now, there are a lot of steps in between the current chairman being removed and picking a new chairman to go forward, and that will also be dicey. However, while it's dangerous to say it can't get any worse than it is now, I think we're at the point where it can't get any worse. 

No matter who wins the primary for the Republicans in February, I don't think the Republican nominee will have a shot at winning this state. I know that the party faithful will be infuriated by that statement, and that means it will be a disaster for all Republicans down ticket. The damn shame is that a United States Senate seat is up in 2024, and currently, the Michigan House of Representatives is tied evenly between Republicans and Democrats. 

A broken and non-functioning Republican Party here in this state is not going to be able to help candidates on the state level try to retake the House and the Senate, which only has a one-Democrat member margin. I know this is not the news that people want to hear, but if you want to start the rebuild to be prepared for the 2026 Governor's race, it's better to be honest with yourself about where you are as opposed to where you hope you are.

Otherwise, you might as well just plan on this being a blue state forever.

Fact over feelings, folks.