This is your 28-days-until-the-election warning bell.
The afterglow of the victory the GOP Senate delivered President Trump in the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the United States Supreme Court, might not be long-lived. Sen. Mitch McConnell over the weekend said this was a unifying force for the base of the GOP.
It may be working for the Senate but the GOP keeping the House is looking tougher.
According to Politico, the chances for the GOP to keep the House are crumbling.
The Republican House majority continues to show signs of collapsing, with Democrats steadily gaining ground toward erasing the 23-seat margin and ending eight years of GOP control.
A total of 68 seats currently held by Republicans are firmly in play — rated as “Lean Republican” or worse for the GOP — presenting a stark contrast to the Democratic side, where only a half-dozen Democratic seats are in similar jeopardy.
The political environment has been jolted temporarily by the searing fight over Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. But prior to that recent battle — which ended with Kavanaugh’s confirmation last week — Democrats had improved their electoral position since Labor Day, according to more than a dozen operatives and strategists in both parties.
I know some people right off the bat will say “SCREW THE POLLS” because of 2016 but here is the dirty lil secret: The polls are right more than they are wrong. Also, we are not talking about having a dynamic, controversial figure at the top of the ticket like President Trump.
The Democrats are fuming after this and in case you have not seen some of the videos floating around of people on the fringe banging on doors, yelling and screaming, they have some energy on their side and energy generally turns into money which turns into wins.
That doesn’t mean it is a lost cause to keep the House. From the same article…
The GOP still has a path to keep the House, but it would require either a near-sweep of the toss-up races or a significant change in the political environment in the final four weeks of the campaign.
A temporary uptick in Republican enthusiasm over the final week of the Kavanaugh confirmation could give the party momentum headed into November that provides that change. But, strategists say, it could just as easily fade, and the dynamic could revert to where it was earlier in September: with Democrats poised to take the House and wage an uphill battle for the Senate, too.
The Dems would love to flip this on its head and get control of the committees to hack away at the administration for the next two years of the Trump Presidency.
The Kavanaugh battle has motivated both sides.
We will find out who was motivated more in 28 days.
In case you missed my other post on a different subject Sen. Hatch ‘Shoos Away’ People Yelling At Him, Tells Them To “Grow Up” and my podcast Bourbon On The Rocks check it out and follow me on the twitters at IRISHDUKE2