For a few weeks now, I've been wanting to hit the panic button on next week's special election in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District, but my rational mind told me not to worry about a district that President Trump carried by 22 points just last year. Maybe it's PTSD over this year's gubernatorial race here in Virginia, but something about the rise of the AWFLs in the Democrat Party has had the alarm bells ringing.
The race to fill the seat of retiring GOP Rep. Mark Green – who left DC earlier this year for a job in the private sector – pits Republican Matt Van Epps, a former commissioner of the Tennessee Department of General Services, against Democrat Aftyn Behn, the Nashville-hating state representative who's been dubbed the "AOC of Tennessee."
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It turns out, according to an Emerson College poll released Wednesday, that there is ample reason for the GOP to hit that panic button good and hard.
Emerson poll | 11/22-11/24 LV
— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) November 26, 2025
Tennessee’s 7th congressional special election (Trump +22)
(Leaners pushed)
🟥Matt Van Epps 49.4%
🟦Aftyn Behn 47.0%
Others 3.5%https://t.co/o2cJWKhfXZ
Standard poll disclaimers, as always, apply: it's just one poll; it could be an outlier; Emerson College polls are trash; polls are notoriously unreliable, etc. But, there may be a "there" there.
Despite the fact that Aftyn Behn loathes her community, espouses socialist nonsense, and happily interferes with ICE agents just doing their jobs, she has somehow managed to pull within 2 points of Van Epps with just days to go before the race is decided. Democrats have gone all-in on this election, reportedly pouring millions of dollars into the race hoping to continue the momentum of their 2025 wins in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City.
Turnout is the name of the game here. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College polling, commented, "The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day, and who stays home."
And that's not great news for the GOP, which tends to have trouble mobilizing the troops in special and off-year elections. Conversely, Democrats, of late, seem giddy to turn up at the polls and rally around the most offensive, reprehensible candidates they can find. See: Jay Jones, attorney general-elect in Virginia.
Early voting, which began on November 12, seems to be breaking for Behn.
"Those who report voting early break for Behn, 56% to 42%, whereas those who plan to vote on Election Day break for Van Epps, 51% to 39%. Voters under 40 are Behn’s strongest group, 64% of whom support her, while Van Epps’ vote increases with age, to 61% of those over 70."
"There is also a stark gender divide; men break for Van Epps by nine points, 51% to 42%, whereas women break for Behn by six, 50% to 44%," Kimball added.
President Trump, who perhaps caught wind of the troubling polling numbers, took to Truth Social on Tuesday night to urge voters to turn out for Van Epps ahead of Wednesday's early voting deadline.
I am asking all America First Patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, who haven’t voted yet, to please GET OUT AND VOTE for MAGA Warrior Matt Van Epps, tomorrow, November 26th, the last day to vote early in person. You can win this Election for Matt! PLEASE VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement. Polls close at 12 P.M. NOON in most of TN-07, and every vote counts. IF YOU ARE IN LINE BY 12 P.M., STAY IN LINE, AND THEY MUST LET YOU VOTE! TN-07: Early Voting ends November 26th, and Election Day is December 2nd. GET OUT AND VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS — HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!
Find your Early Voting location at:
swampthevoteusa.com/tennessee/
Emerson's Kimball indicated Trump's approval rating may be at play in the rise of Aftyn Behn; the president now has a 47 percent job approval rating in TN-07 and a 49 percent disapproval rating. "President Trump’s approval rating is a stark reversal from last November, when he carried the district by 22 points. The decline is driven by independents, among whom 59% disapprove and just 34% approve," Kimball said.
As for the issues motiving TN-07 voters, the economy is at the top with 38 percent, followed by housing affordability at 15 percent, healthcare at 13 percent, threats to democracy also at 13 percent, immigration at 6 percent, and crime and education each at 5 percent. Republicans would do well to take notice of how much the economy is driving recent elections.
Early voting in TN-07 ends today with the general election taking place on December 2.
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