It's not often enough that you get to witness the Democrat Party facing the consequences of their own actions, but a great reckoning may, in fact, be on its way for Virginia Democrats and their gubernatorial candidate, Abigail Spanberger. A new poll from the firm co/efficient shows Republican Winsome Earle-Sears is surging and has substantially cut the lead previously enjoyed by Spanberger.
To recap, a poll from back in May showed Spanberger with a whopping 17-point lead; by last week, that lead had shrunk to 7 points. The new poll from co/efficient shows that Spanberger now only leads by 5 points, a fairly dramatic change over so short a period of time.
It's Time for President Trump to Endorse Winsome Sears
It's important to note that this poll was not commissioned by either candidate or any candidate's campaign committee.
New co/efficient Statewide VA Poll:
— co/efficient (@coefficientpoll) August 27, 2025
Governor:
Spanberger (D): 48%
Earle-Sears (R): 43%
Lt. Governor:
Reid (R): 43%
Hashmi (D): 43%
Attorney General:
Jones (D): 45%
Miyares (R): 44%
Aug 23-26, 2025 | 1,025 LVs | MoE ±3.1% | Not sponsored by any candidate or candidates…
So, what has happened to send Abigail Spanberger into a free fall with just a few short weeks until early voting begins? It could be the fact that she's Joe Biden in heels; she's basically been hiding in a basement somewhere and refusing to answer any hard questions. Or it could be that she's on the wrong side of the issues most important to Virginians in 2025; stick a pin in that, we'll discuss it more in a minute.
Then again, it could be that one of her foot soldiers showed up at a rally last week holding a vile, racist sign directed at Winsome Earle-Sears.
Let’s check in on white progressive women in Arlington. pic.twitter.com/P3zGFXXxU5
— Arlington GOP (@goparlington) August 21, 2025
In true Spanberger fashion, she issued a tepid rebuke of the sign through her team. It was only after it became clear this story was not going away that she managed to tweet a somewhat stronger statement; most decent people would have immediately gone on camera to condemn such a vile sentiment, but that would require having a strong moral backbone.
RELATED: Sick, Sick, Sick: Liberal White Woman Waves Appallingly Racist Sign at Winsome Sears
Keep in mind that the sign was directed at Earle-Sears ahead of her speaking out against the transgender bathroom policy of Arlington County Public Schools that allowed a creepy old man to access the girls' locker room at a local high school. A policy that Abigail Spanberger supports.
Registered sex offender Richard Cox—a grown man—repeatedly prowled into girls’ locker rooms and exposed himself to children. Again. And again.
— Winsome Earle-Sears (@winwithwinsome) August 24, 2025
Abigail Spanberger voted to give him the right to be there. pic.twitter.com/BHXV5cJXPZ
Now, about those issue-focused crosstabs—there's not a lot of good news for Spanberger in there. The raw polling data shows likely voters care about deporting violent illegals (and a decent number want the non-violent illegals gone, too), are concerned about rising crime rates, do not support boys competing in girls' sports, and want to see an end to the commonwealth's absurd car tax. All of these things work in favor of Winsome Earle-Sears.
The crosstabs are brutal for @SpanbergerForVA. pic.twitter.com/VNZDJVMAQI
— Teri (@TeriChristoph) August 27, 2025
Earle-Sears has been out in front of these issues for months now, and in recent weeks has been particularly focused on fighting the five Northern Virginia school systems that are defying the Trump administration's mandate requiring students to use the bathrooms and locker rooms that correspond to their biological sex. And Racist Granny just helped shine a bright, blinding spotlight on the fact that Abigail Spanberger supports those school systems sending boys into girls' spaces.
When asked why the needle was moving in Earle-Sears' direction, Matthew Hurtt, chairman of the Arlington County GOP, told RedState:
"With one tone deaf sign, Arlington leftists completely changed the tone and tenor of this campaign, exposing their bigtory and giving Winsome Earle-Sears a significant boost in both grassroots enthusiasm and fundraising. The latest poll reflects a continued shift in support for the Republican ticket with cross-tabs revealing the far-left's radical gender ideology is wildly unpopular across every demographic. The last week has been a game changer in the race for governor in Virginia."
We also reached out to Carrie Sheffield, a senior policy analyst at Independent Women’s Voice (IWV) who also leads the Northern Virginia chapter of the Independent Women’s Network. IWV has been running radio ads educating voters on Spanberger's record voting to keep men in women's sports.
"I think Winsome is rising in the polls because her policies empower parents, workers and business leaders," Sheffield said, pointing to Earle-Sears' outspoken defense of boys and girls in five Virginia school districts found in violation of Title IX and risk losing tens of millions of federal tax dollars as a result.
Sheffield also praised the Youngkin administration, with Earle-Sears as its second in command, which has achieved a historic deregulatory agenda saving Virginia taxpayers $1.2 billion annually and lowering housing costs for home buyers.
"Winsome's policies would continue to strengthen Virginia's economy," Sheffield said. "Virginia's families deserve an administration that works for them instead of undermining them."
Earle-Sears' press secretary, Peyton Vogel, said in a press release, "It’s no surprise Abigail Spanberger has been running a basement campaign." Vogel continued, "She knows most Virginia voters disagree with her vote to allow biological males in female spaces. Voters are taking notice and rallying behind Winsome Earle-Sears because she is fighting to protect their children from an extreme ideology run amok."
RedState will, of course, be bringing you all the last on the Virginia governor's race. Early voting begins September 19.
Editor's Note: President Trump is fighting to dismantle the Department of Education and ensure America's kids get the education they deserve.
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