Virginia has been enjoying somewhat of a conservative renaissance these past four years under the leadership of Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, the 2021 underdog who rode a wave of parental discontent all the way to the governor's mansion. Because Youngkin is term-limited from running again in 2025, the race is on to replace him, with two women likely to face off this November 4th and one of them becoming Virginia's first-ever female governor.
On the Right: Winsome Earle-Sears
Winsome Earle-Sears is the current lieutenant governor of the commonwealth and received Youngkin's endorsement when she announced her gubernatorial run last November.
In 2021 Winsome, Jason, and I ran as a team and we have served Virginians as a team. In 2025, Winsome and Jason will once again lead the Republican team as candidates for Governor and Attorney General. Both have been indispensable partners to advance our shared, commonsense… pic.twitter.com/KkoBTsiNJy
— Glenn Youngkin (@GlennYoungkin) November 18, 2024
In 2021 Winsome, Jason [Miyares], and I ran as a team and we have served Virginians as a team. In 2025, Winsome and Jason will once again lead the Republican team as candidates for Governor and Attorney General. Both have been indispensable partners to advance our shared, commonsense conservative policies that have made Virginia the best state in America for business, backed the blue and cracked down on crime, stood strong for our military and veterans, and transformed education by raising teacher pay, re-establishing academic excellence, and empowering parents in their child’s education and life.
Winsome has been an outstanding Lt. Governor, and she will be a great Governor. She has been an outspoken advocate for commonsense conservative principles and policies, a passionate voice for our military and veterans, and a relentless advocate for educational freedom and economic opportunity. She brings the fighting spirit of a Marine to the office every single day.
Sears has a very compelling life story, having emigrated from Jamaica at a young age and going on to serve in the U.S. Marine Corps., the Virginia House of Delegates, and various state and federal positions. She also lived out her conservative ideals when she put her life on hold to care for her grandchildren after her daughter was killed in an automobile accident.
Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears Makes Her Next Move and It's Big
She is, without a doubt, the Republican frontrunner and, as of this writing, is the only declared candidate on the right. Recent polling shows her in a neck-and-neck race with presumed Democrat nominee Abigail Spanberger.
Kamala Harris won Virginia by a margin of 51.8 percent to Donald Trump's 46.6 percent, but Republicans outperformed expectations in certain parts of the commonwealth, including Loudoun County.
Spanberger leads Earle-Sears by a razor-thin margin, 42% to 41%, with 4% of voters supporting another candidate and 13% undecided, the survey found.
On the Left: Abigail Spanberger
Abigail Spanberger, a former member of the U.S. House of Representatives, is everything conservatives dislike about Democrats: She claims to be a moderate but was a reliable rubber stamp for Joe Biden's disastrous agenda, is wishy-washy on illegal immigration and supports codifying abortion into federal law.
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A regular on MSNBC, Spanberger, who also has a CIA background, recently received a substantial donation from VoteVets, a left-leaning veterans organization. Despite her frontrunner status, she may find some primary competition from former Rep. Bobby Scott and former Richmond mayor Levar Stoney.
Spanberger opted not to run for reelection in 2024 and was replaced by the odious Eugene Vindman.
Spoilers: DOGE and a Disgruntled Republican
Elon Musk and DOGE might be a big spoiler in this year's election, as Virginia is home to an estimated 145,000 federal workers, many of whom live and vote in blue Northern Virginia (NoVA) and are likely very worried about keeping their jobs. It is left-leaning population centers like NoVA that keep the Old Dominion a reliably Democrat state, so Winsome Sears may find some serious headwinds as the Trump administration seeks to shrink the federal workforce.
Another possible spoiler could be Republican Dave LaRock, a former NoVA state delegate who has hinted at a primary run against Sears.
In an interview with WTOP, LaRock said he wants to force a primary against Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, who Youngkin is backing.
“I certainly respect the governor, but I’ve never believed in top-down or hand-picked appointees,” LaRock said. “Clearly, the decision belongs to primary voters, and I think that we’re all stronger as a party when we have competition.”
When asked why he didn’t think Earle-Sears was the best choice for Republicans, he cited “defects as a candidate.”
“I know Winsome, I like Winsome, but decisions that she’s made very publicly, I think will make it very difficult for her to unite the base that any candidate would need to be successful in running for this office,” LaRock said, hinting at negative comments Earle-Sears has made in the past about President Donald Trump.
This actually could be a blessing in disguise, as hardcore conservative LaRock would be running to the right of Sears, and his presence in the race would force her to be louder and more definitive about where she stands on issues. This is a must if she wants to defeat Spanberger.
Silver Lining: A Redder Virginia
Make no mistake: 2025 is going to be a tough year for Virginia Republicans. DOGE will likely bite the party pretty hard, which will somewhat energize federal employees to organize or at least vote. However, shrinking the size of the federal government will necessarily change the demographics of NoVA voting patterns in future election cycles. If enough ousted workers choose to leave the area or the state, Virginia will start to look a whole lot redder.
