Back in the day, the Commonwealth of Virginia and its thirteen electoral votes were prized spoils in presidential elections. The Old Dominion was also, not so long ago, considered a bellwether state; "As goes Virginia, so goes the country" was something you'd hear often.
That hasn't really been the case for a while, with Democrats holding both of Virginia's U.S. Senate seats for nearly two decades and, mostly, cruising to easy victories to take the governor's mansion. Glenn Youngkin was a welcome disruption who correctly read the tea leaves and successfully campaigned on a message of parental rights. But, he's been the exception to the rule, as the decidedly Democrat stronghold of northern Virginia (NoVA) and its economic reliance on the federal government has made it difficult for Republicans to win there.
Nationally, the Democrat Party has relied for years on their infamous "blue wall" of states, mostly on the West Coast and in the Northeast, to deliver them the electoral votes needed to take the White House. Virginia has its very own blue wall made up of these populous counties, which are all DC suburbs: Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William.
Together, these counties account for a third of the commonwealth's population. And they vote Democrat because their livelihoods depend on the largesse of the American taxpayer, who funds the federal government on which many of these voters depend to stroke their paycheck.
In short, northern Virginia is addicted to the federal government.
That being said, even the hoity-toity folks of NoVA worry about inflation, woke nonsense in schools, and illegal immigration. One county, in particular, caught the attention of many this year for taking a dramatic swing away from the Democrat Party: Loudoun County.
Population: 420,000
2024 result: Harris +16
2020 result: Biden +25
In the D.C. metro area, suburban/exurban Loudoun’s population growth and political shift toward Democrats in recent years is a key reason for Virginia’s emergence as a reliably blue state in presidential elections. But last week, Loudoun took an unexpected turn back in the GOP’s direction, with Trump erasing nearly 10 points from his 2020 deficit. One reason: The county has an unusually high concentration of Asian Americans (21%), another nonwhite group with which Democrats’ previously massive advantage shriveled this election.
There's also a creeping MS-13 issue in Loudoun and its public schools, something voters are not likely to ignore. They've made it clear before: Don't mess with our kids.
So, yes, there are ample opportunities for the GOP to make gains in NoVA through policy issues like parental rights, illegal immigration, and the economy. However, there's a much more expedient solution: DOGE.
The Department of Government Efficiency. Elon Musk teased it while stumping for Donald Trump, and now it's a reality. Trump has tasked Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to head the effort to, in the words of the announcement, "dismantle Government Bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure Federal Agencies - Essential to the 'Save America' Movement." Basically, Elon and Vivek, the DOGE bros, will be in charge of recommending ways for the Trump administration to take a blowtorch to the federal government.
Alrighty then.
The "threat" to the federal workforce has caught the attention of one of Virginia's senators, the milquetoast Mark Warner, who says that northern Virginia now has “a target on it.”
I’m ready to step up for federal workers no matter what the next administration has in store.https://t.co/51jQy2IGiP
— Mark Warner (@MarkWarner) November 14, 2024
A recent news story reported that Warner's "biggest concern" is "the new Department of Government Efficiency that Trump plans to create with billionaire Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, leading it, along with Vivek Ramaswamy, one of the former president’s unsuccessful rivals for the Republican presidential nomination."
Said Warner:
“We need to recognize that this region’s got a target on it with the new administration,” Warner said.
“I think the first nine months of the new administration is going to be our moment of challenge,” he said. “We see the president-elect moving very quickly on new appointments.”
Donald Trump has got all the right people running scared.
A bloated federal government has long benefitted the voters of northern Virginia, who consistently vote for Democrats in the hopes that they will continue to feed the beast. Reducing the number of federal employees, which Ramaswamy has previously said should be slashed by 75 percent, would go a long way to turning the entire state of Virginia red.
Relocating parts of the federal government into the U.S. heartland, such as the Food and Drug Administration, right into the middle of America so it can get a dose of reality, would be one step closer to returning sanity to NoVA. Not to mention the benefit of having federal employees live in reality outside of DC's beltway bubble.
Although this won't be under the purview of DOGE, the mass deportations of illegals would also have a lasting impact on the voting habits of the area. That, plus a reduction in the federal workforce, would make Virginia a happier, safer, and more affordable place to live. And happy voters tend to be Republican voters.
Even though Virginia only has 13 electoral votes, its proximity to Washington, D.C., makes it an important win for any presidential candidate. Donald Trump, ably abetted by his DOGE bros Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, may just be able to turn Virginia red for generations to come.
Editor's Note: This article was updated post-publication to note the correct name of the FDA (Food and Drug Administration) — our apologies for the oversight.
