Even though President Trump has not announced an official deadline for talks with Iran to begin, I don't think anyone believes that such a deadline doesn't exist. When a proposed negotiating deadline fell apart on Monday, President Trump gave a very soft, indefinite extension for talks to resume. Using Truth Social as his medium, this is how President Trump framed the issue:
Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal. I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Blockade and, in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other. President DONALD J. TRUMP
Three days into the extended period, I think it is pretty obvious that, by their words and actions, the Iranians have no desire to cut a deal. It is equally obvious that Trump has not accomplished his four stated goals, and there doesn't seem to be a path forward that doesn't include bombing the snot out of them for a couple more weeks. According to the White House, "From day one, the objectives have been clear and unwavering: obliterate Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and production capability, annihilate its navy, sever its support for terrorist proxies, and ensure the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism never acquires a nuclear weapon."
As is clear from the activities in the Strait of Hormuz, only ships that have played by the rules established by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are allowed to pass. Other ships are fired upon and boarded.
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Iran Claims It Fired on and Seized Ships - but There's More to the Story – RedState
According to the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency (is it time to start putting Tulsi Gabbard's picture on milk cartons?), Iran retains large stockpiles of ballistic missiles, despite the destruction wrought by the air campaign and Iran's profligate use of the weapons.
On April 16, Lieutenant General James H. Adams III, the director of the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency, testified before the House Armed Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations:
On April 16, Lieutenant General James H. Adams III, the director of the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency, testified before the House Armed Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations:
— Jim Geraghty (@jimgeraghty) April 21, 2026
"Iran retains thousands of missiles and one-way attack UAVs…
On April 16, Lieutenant General James H. Adams III, the director of the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency, testified before the House Armed Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations:
"Iran retains thousands of missiles and one-way attack UAVs that can threaten U.S. and partner forces throughout the region, despite degradations to its capabilities from both attrition and expenditure."
I assume the known missile factories have been destroyed, but keep in mind that German airplane production increased in the last full year of the war as factories were broken up into smaller facilities and distributed.
While we may have eliminated the larger ships in the Iranian Navy, the fact that they have many small craft available has been confirmed by commercial satellite imagery.
Sentinel-2 satellite imagery from today shows a swarm of IRGC Navy fast attack craft returning to their bases north of the Strait of Hormuz after conducting patrols in the area.
— OSINTWarfare (@OSINTWarfare) April 22, 2026
These vessels are likely linked to today’s reported incidents involving three ships, including the… pic.twitter.com/CtLGxtErQO
Sentinel-2 satellite imagery from today shows a swarm of IRGC Navy fast attack craft returning to their bases north of the Strait of Hormuz after conducting patrols in the area.
These vessels are likely linked to today’s reported incidents involving three ships, including the seizure of the container ships Epaminondas and MSC Francesca.
These ships don't have to go toe-to-toe with the U.S. Navy; they just have to convince shipowners and insurers that ships might be captured to effectively shut down commerce. That means we have to root them out of their hiding places.
On the final matter, the Iranians refused to budge on nuclear material or enrichment.
This all happened with the "moderates" in charge of the negotiations. The bottom line is that the first round of negotiations did nothing to weaken the Iranian position or strengthen that of the U.S. It was strategic dead air.
IRGC senior officials did not allow an Iranian negotiating team to go to Islamabad to meet with US negotiators, and rejected the content that Iranian negotiators discussed with the US in the first round of talks. Trump convened his team and decided to give Iran more time - Axios
— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) April 22, 2026
So while Trump can say he's awaiting their newest offer, there is no evidence that any such offer will be forthcoming.
Iran’s deputy parliament speaker Hamidreza Haji Babaei said any negotiations with the United States were off the table unless Washington acknowledged defeat.
— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) April 23, 2026
“Any negotiations are prohibited until the US admits defeat,” he said.
He also warned regional countries against…
Iran’s deputy parliament speaker Hamidreza Haji Babaei said any negotiations with the United States were off the table unless Washington acknowledged defeat.
“Any negotiations are prohibited until the US admits defeat,” he said.
He also warned regional countries against supporting attacks on Iranian officials, saying: “Airports, hotels and even rulers of countries that provide facilities to terrorists must be targeted.”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei opposes extending negotiations under current conditions, an Iranian MP said on Thursday.
— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) April 23, 2026
“He is strongly opposed to any extension of negotiations under the current conditions,” said Ali Khazarian, a member of parliament’s national security and…
Just a note. Everyone is pretty sure they mean "Mojtaba Khamenei" as communicating with Ali Khameini while he's slow-roasting on a spit in Hell would be difficult.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei opposes extending negotiations under current conditions, an Iranian MP said on Thursday.
“He is strongly opposed to any extension of negotiations under the current conditions,” said Ali Khazarian, a member of parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee.
In the meantime, it looks like the Iranians have decided that the opacity of their decision-making processes allows them to stall without consequences.
BREAKING:
— דרור בלאזאדה | Dror Balazada (@DBalazada) April 23, 2026
• The IRGC is limiting authority: Araghchi and Ghalibaf can continue talks with the Americans — but without the power to commit or guarantee anything
• A rollback from previous understandings regarding 60% enriched uranium (450 kg)
• The message from Tehran: talks —… pic.twitter.com/Vwg9m1r7oI
BREAKING:
• The IRGC is limiting authority: Araghchi and Ghalibaf can continue talks with the Americans — but without the power to commit or guarantee anything
• A rollback from previous understandings regarding 60% enriched uranium (450 kg)
• The message from Tehran: talks — yes; commitments — no
Power centers in Iran right now:
• Ahmad Vahidi – IRGC Commander
• Mohammad Bagher Zolqadr – Secretary of the National Security Council
Power map inside the regime:
• The main divide is no longer just IRGC vs. others
• The real split: hardliners vs. pragmatists
• Even outside the IRGC, there are figures aligning with the hawkish camp
Bottom line:
Hardliners are gaining strength, controlling decision-making — and hardening Iran’s position vis-à-vis the United States.
There is even doubt that there are two power centers competing; rather, it is a Potemkin opposition that exists only to give the appearance of a splintered government and buy time. Keep in mind that our boy Vahidi has an Interpol "Red Notice" because of his indictment in Argentina, due to his role in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires that killed 86 and injured over 300.
Tehran is sticking to its good cop (Qalibaf) v bad cop (Vahidi) routine, I told @nypost.
— Khosro K Isfahani (@KhosroIsfahani) April 23, 2026
A comparative study of their records shows that they grew through the IRGC ranks together and have historically advocated for identical policies and strategies. https://t.co/vn3XSxgTQo
Tehran is sticking to its good cop (Qalibaf) v bad cop (Vahidi) routine, I told @nypost.
A comparative study of their records shows that they grew through the IRGC ranks together and have historically advocated for identical policies and strategies.
That brings us up to today. President Trump said in an interview on Monday morning that he was reluctant to extend the ceasefire deadline. However, his stance is much softer now. On Wednesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt was categorical that there was no deadline.
"I'm not going to set a timetable for the president. He has not done that, and I won't. I know there's been some anonymous, sourced reporting that there was maybe a three to five day deadline. That is not true. The president has not set a deadline himself," Leavitt told reporters at the White House on Wednesday.
As I said during the Venezuela adventure, concentrating military force has its own logic. You can't sustain the force we've moved to the U.S. CENTCOM area of responsibility indefinitely. You either use it to bring the war to a successful conclusion...or you tuck tail, make excuses, and bring it home. Politically, I don't think the Trump administration can afford to do Option 2, so I'm convinced a deadline exists, at least in the minds of Trump, Hegseth, and Rubio, even if it isn't for public consumption.
Despite the uncertainty, I think President Trump is aware they are trying to play him and is trying to look like the good guy before dropping the hammer. Today, he reposted this tweet by political commentator Marc Thiessen on Truth Social without comment.
“If there are two factions in Iran, one that wants a deal and one that doesn’t, let’s kill the ones who don’t want a deal.” pic.twitter.com/NbbZZ6vqcN
— Marc Thiessen 🇺🇸❤️🇺🇦🇹🇼🇮🇱 (@marcthiessen) April 22, 2026
It says, “If there are two factions in Iran, one that wants a deal and one that doesn’t, let’s kill the ones who don’t want a deal.”
In other news, the USS George H. W. Bush carrier strike group is now in the Arabian Sea and chopped to U.S. CENTCOM's command. That makes three of them on station, if you're counting.
Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) sails in the Indian Ocean in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, April 23. pic.twitter.com/oDcTM6YMLF
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) April 23, 2026
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