Trump Is Pursuing a Peace Deal With Iran, but Is Such a Thing Possible Given the Differences?

AP Photo/Vahid Salemi, File

This morning, for the first time since March 1, there were no airstrikes, and the Basij manning security checkpoints in Tehran didn't have to change man-dresses at the sound of buzzing because Israeli drones weren't on the hunt. The negotiations came about rather abruptly.

Advertisement

The first movement was a post on President Trump's Truth Social account that gave Bill Kristol, David French, and a lot of members of the fake conservative movement the heebie-jeebies; see No, President Trump Won't Use Nukes in Iran – RedState.

A few hours later, we were told that "some good news" was in the offing.

There was a kerfuffle between the White House and CNN over a series of social media posts by the Iranians, and by President Trump, that gave the impression that Trump had caved to Iranian demands; see Trump Calls Out CNN's ‘Fraud’ Fake Iranian 'Victory' Statement — Says Criminal Investigation Underway – RedState.

Here, President Trump seems to say that the Iranian proposal is somewhat acceptable: "Almost all the previous points of contention have been agreed to."

Advertisement

Allegedly, the 10 points circulated by Iran are not the same 10 points that Iran has proposed for negotiation. But when you communicate by social media post, you have no right to blame the media for getting stuff wrong.

What is this 10-point plan Iran is proposing, not to be confused with the 10-point plan that the White House says has been proposed?

  1. A U.S. guarantee of non‑aggression — a binding commitment that Iran will not be attacked again.
  2. Continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, including the right to regulate passage and (in some versions) charge transit fees shared with Oman.
  3. Acceptance of Iran’s right to enrich uranium for its nuclear program.
  4. Removal of all primary U.S. sanctions on Iran.
  5. Removal of all secondary sanctions on foreign entities doing business with Iran.
  6. Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions targeting Iran.
  7. Termination of all IAEA resolutions on Iran’s nuclear program.
  8. Compensation payments to Iran for war damage.
  9. Withdrawal of all U.S. combat forces from the region.
  10. A ceasefire on all fronts, including an end to Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Advertisement

If you look carefully, you'll see that a) Iran offers nothing and b) it insists on rolling the clock back to before Obama's ill-conceived nuclear deal. In fact, the Farsi version of the plan makes it very clear that all limits on Iran's ability to build nukes must be lifted.

Iran in the Farsi-language version of its 10-point ceasefire plan included the phrase “acceptance of enrichment” for its nuclear program, something that was missing in English versions shared by Iranian diplomats to journalists.

It wasn’t immediately clear why that term was missing.

President Trump has made a 15-point counteroffer. Trump's proposal isn't as well circulated as the Iranian one, but if it is the same proposal on the table before the war started, it has these elements in addition to the two-week ceasefire.

1. Iran must dismantle its existing nuclear capabilities.

2. Iran must commit never to pursue nuclear weapons.

3. There will be no uranium enrichment on Iranian territory.

4. Iran must hand its stockpile of some 450 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent to the International Atomic Energy Agency in the near future, in a timetable to be agreed.

5. The Natanz, Isfahan and Fordo nuclear facilities must be dismantled.

6. The IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, must be granted full access, transparency and oversight inside Iran.

7. Iran must abandon its regional proxy “paradigm.”

8. Iran must cease the funding, direction and arming of its regional proxies.

9. The Strait of Hormuz must remain open and function as a free maritime corridor.

10. Iran’s missile program must be limited in both range and quantity, with specific thresholds to be determined at a later stage.

11. Any future use of missiles would be restricted to self-defense.

In return, Iran would benefit as follows:

12. Iran would receive a full lifting of sanctions imposed by the international community.

13. The US would assist Iran in advancing its civilian nuclear program, including electricity generation at the Bushehr nuclear plant.

14. The so-called “snapback” mechanism, which allows for the automatic reimposition of sanctions if Iran fails to comply, would be removed.

Advertisement

The requirement that enriched uranium be removed was reiterated after the announcement of ceasefire talks.

The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.” It is now, and has been, under very exacting Satellite Surveillance (Space Force!). Nothing has been touched from the date of attack. We are, and will be, talking Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran. Many of the 15 points have already been been agreed to. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth reiterated that demand just a few hours ago.

You'll note that this post says most of the 15 points have already been agreed to and implies that U.S. forces will be involved in recovering and removing enriched uranium.

At first blush, it looks like the sides occupy different universes. What is the middle ground when the Iranians are demanding an end to all verification of Iran's nuclear program, while the U.S. President is demanding that we take possession of it?

Advertisement

The first test of where this is going is to look at where we stand on the requirement that the Strait of Hormuz be opened immediately. That didn't and hasn't happened. In fact, Iran has reportedly closed Hormuz again because Israel thumped some Hezbollah butt in Lebanon. 

The free movement never materialized as Iran continued to charge tolls. 

And missile attacks continued.

My colleague, Bonchie, has more: New: Iran Is Already Blatantly Violating the Ceasefire, Large Missile Barrages Reported – RedState.

I don't see this pause accomplishing anything other than allowing Trump to say he tried to end the war and the Iranians using it as a strategic pause to reorganize, decide who's in the government, and reestablish internal communications.

Earlier today, President Trump floated the idea of a "joint venture" with Iranian piracy in Hormuz.

Advertisement

I don't know why anyone would think shutting down an international waterway between three countries, so one of the parties can tax traffic, makes sense. In terms of practicality, this rates up there with Obama sending pallets of cash to Iran. Even if the tolls go into some sort of trust fund for social welfare projects in Iran, money is fungible, and tanker toll money allows other funds to be devoted to terrorism.

At this point, I'm in agreement with my long-time friend Erick Erickson:

I was in favor of the war if we met the announced aims of the war: 1) destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles and production capability, 2) demolish the Iranian Navy, 3)  ensure Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon, and 4) stop Iran's support for regional proxy forces. I want to see those items clearly and unambiguously in any deal, and I want to hear the words from the mouth of whoever is running Iran on that particular day. Anything less than that, I'm afraid, will go down as the third strategic loss suffered by the U.S. in the last quarter century, and that ain't "winning."

Advertisement

For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.

Help us report the truth about the Trump administration’s decisive actions to keep Americans safe and bring peace to the world. Join RedState VIP and use promo code FIGHT to get 60% off your VIP membership.

Recommended

Join the conversation as a VIP Member

Trending on RedState Videos