A simmering border conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan flared into full-blown warfare after a surprise Pakistani air raid on the Afghan cities of Kabul, Khost, Jalalabad, and Paktika targeting leadership and facilities of Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The Pakistani version of the Taliban, which numbers about 4,000 fighters, broadly cooperated with the Afghan Taliban during our 20-year war, but their real target is replacing the Pakistani government.
If Pakistan thought that the Afghans were going to sit by meekly while the Pakistanis bombed them, they underestimated the situation. Afghanistan, bolstered by billions of dollars donated by Joe Biden's arm-a-terrorist program, has launched attacks at several Pakistani border installations.
BREAKING:
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 11, 2025
The Afghan Taliban announce that they have launched attacks against Pakistan at 7 points along the border.
Source: Afghan Defense Ministry pic.twitter.com/ASmBmWgI81
Here, Afghan reinforcements in U.S.-manufactured up-armored HMMWVs move reinforcements to the front lines.
BREAKING:
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 11, 2025
The Afghan Taliban send large Humvee convoys toward the border with Pakistan as reinforcements after intense fighting breaks out between the 2 countries
🇦🇫🇵🇰🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/paCBEe8RPD
They are supported by artillery manned by U.S.-trained gun crews.
In 2012 I helped field and train the 201st Corps on their new D-30s.
— Preston Stewart (@prestonstew_) October 11, 2025
So an American trained Afghans on a Russian howitzer that ended up with the Taliban who are now firing them into Pakistan. https://t.co/FNuTZFpal3
They also have a tiny bit of air support provided by the U.S.
Video reportedly of Afghan Super-Tucano aircraft bombing the Pakistani city of Lahore tonight.
— Mehdi H. (@mhmiranusa) October 11, 2025
Afghanistan A-29 Super Tucano aircraft were provided by the US before Taliban takeover. The aircraft can be armed with two 500-pound bombs, twin .50-caliber machine guns & rockets. pic.twitter.com/zuo67C3I1n
Things don't look to be going particularly well for the Pakistanis as the first images of prisoners emerge.
First footage of captured Pakistani army Prisoner of War by Afghan forces. pic.twitter.com/LvBB9e87n0
— Λｖｅｎｇｅr 🇮🇳 𝕏 (@TheAvenger82) October 12, 2025
This war is another of those caused by a British civil servant drawing arbitrary lines on a map. In this case, Sir Mortimer Durand drew the eponymous Durand Line in 1893, separating India and Pakistan. As a result, a lot of what would otherwise be Afghans found themselves in the British Indian Empire. The line held as the northern border of Pakistan when the totally non-violent, peaceful partition of India between Hindus and Muslims took place after Indian Independence. The area has been restive and dangerous to outsiders ever since Pakistan was created.
The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (1979–1989) made things a lot more interesting as the U.S. and Saudi Arabia funneled arms and training to the mujahideen via Pakistan’s ISI intelligence service. The primary recipients of that aid were the Pashtun tribes. These became the Afghan Taliban in 1994. They were armed and sheltered by Pakistan as a way of keeping Afghanistan in Pakistan’s orbit and countering Indian influence
Like so many great ideas, this turned out to have flaws.
The TTP, formed in 2007, immediately turned against Islamabad, demanding Sharia governance and autonomy for the Pashtun tribal areas. They used familiar tactics: suicide bombings, school massacres, and ambushes. During our two decades in Afghanistan, the TTP provided sanctuaries for their Afghan brethren where they could rearm and regroup under the protection of Pakistan. Now, Pakistan is about to be devoured by the monster it created and nurtured.
After the Abbey Gate tragedy, Pakistan’s victory turned to ashes. Where Pakistan thought it had evicted the U.S. from the area and permanently stopped Indian inroads, it was faced by a TTP, using Afghanistan as a sanctuary, unleashing unending violence on the Pakistani border. Since 2021, there have been over 2,500 TTP attacks, mostly using abandoned U.S. weapons.
As the overall objective appears to be to pry the Pashtun border regions away from Pakistan, Pakistan has ordered the deportation of over 4 million Aghans living in the Durand Line region. Over 800,000 have left.
The pace of attacks and reprisals has escalated over the last year. Pakistan retaliated with border strikes, most significantly in March and December 2024, but that isn’t to say that the TTP hasn’t had some notable successes.
The latest round kicked off with the air raids, which appear to be a Temu knockoff version of Israel’s evisceration of the high commands of Hezbollah and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Like most things Pakistani, the execution wasn’t exemplary.
It is early yet, but one can see how this could turn out to be a self-own on the scale of Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
As you can see, the stakes for Pakistan are immense. The orange and brown areas represent areas that could be lost to Afghanistan or independence if the TTP is successful.
Pakistan's going to have a fun time trying to maintain control of their border territories pic.twitter.com/sK7h8QdMRP
— Intelschizo (@Schizointel) October 11, 2025
Pakistan is unlikely to receive much help from the Muslim world, as Afghanistan is also Muslim and arguably more so than Pakistan. Saudi Arabia joined a mutual defense pact with Pakistan in September, but Saudi Arabia's military is not capable of projecting measurable power, and the Saudi experience in Yemen doesn't leave one with the feeling that Saudi involvement would do more than create targets and hostages for the TTP.
China probably can't let this crisis go to waste and will find a way to meddle in it.
The wild card here is Trump's desire to reoccupy Bagram air base in Afghanistan (see Trump Drops Bombshell: U.S. Trying to Reclaim Key Asset From Taliban – RedState). The issue seems to be dead, but if it is still kicking, then peace between Afghanistan and Pakistan is vital, as Bagram is not sustainable without Pakistani logistics support.
As the Afghans are more warlike and capable than the Pakistanis and are at parity in armaments, things don't look good if Pakistan tries to impose a military solution on the problem.
The Schumer Shutdown is here. Rather than put the American people first, Chuck Schumer and the radical Democrats forced a government shutdown for healthcare for illegals. They own this.
Help us continue to report the truth about the Schumer Shutdown. Use promo code POTUS47 to get 74% off your VIP membership.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member