President Trump will meet with the leaders of the House and Senate and the leading Democrat in each chamber of Congress on Monday to attempt to avert a government shutdown at midnight Tuesday. Clean continuing resolutions to fund the government through November 21 have been introduced in the House and Senate. The House bill passed 217-212, but the Senate version failed 44-48, with Rand Paul and Lisa Murkowski voting with the Democrats.
This meeting will probably be the last chance to avoid a government shutdown.
Background
The moves leading up to this meeting are some of the most interesting that I've seen. Trump was supposed to meet with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries on Tuesday but abruptly canceled accusing them both of being dishonest (can you see my shocked face?): "after reviewing the details of the unserious and ridiculous demands being made by the Minority Radical Left Democrats in return for their Votes to keep our thriving Country open, I have decided that no meeting with their Congressional Leaders could possibly be productive."
Since that cancellation and the predictable and petulant outbursts by Schumer and Jeffries, the Democrats have begged Trump to come back to the negotiating table.
In the Friday conversation, the Democratic leader urged Thune “to get President Trump to meet because the deadline for a government shutdown is fast approaching,” according to one of the people, a Schumer aide. The other person said the call was initiated by Schumer.
The Nominal Battle
The Democrats are attempting to frame the shutdown as a defense of healthcare, but of course they are. In virtually every fiscal confrontation or election, you can count on the Democrats to claim the Republicans are ending Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid. Remember the infamous ad featuring an evil Paul Ryan pushing Granny in her wheelchair over the cliff when Granny's Medicare was not even on the line?
The ostensible fight is over Obamacare subsidies:
The fight over covid-era health insurance subsidies that could trigger a government shutdown highlights what even supporters of the Affordable Care Act fight admit is a flaw in the original law: It wasn’t generous enough to make plans affordable.
Democrats want to keep providing extra subsidies to enroll in plans offered through the ACA. But Republicans who control Congress say that it’s time to scale back because the pandemic is over.
Schumer is convinced, or is trying to convince others, that the GOP will cave on the subsidies: "In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Schumer projected confidence that he has an exit strategy in the event of a shutdown. He said that he expects pressure will build on Republicans to reach a deal to save expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies as Americans receive letters next month informing them of healthcare premium increases ahead of open enrollment in November."
The real healthcare fight is over Medicaid enhancements still sloshing around the system that some states are using to subsidize health insurance for illegals. Yes, I know, illegals can't get Medicaid, but in some states, they get something that looks a lot like it.
The Real Fight
There are two parts to the real fight. First and foremost, the Democrats are demanding that all the tax provisions on the One Big Beautiful Bill be eliminated. This would increase taxes on working Americans, as opposed to non-working Americans, and remove the provisions that increase education and health savings accounts. The Democrats want this for two reasons. First, they want you poor, dependent, owning nothing, and eating bugs. That's their default policy. Second, they want to hand Trump a personal defeat in revenge for the way he rolled them in passing the bill.
The Lay of the Land
At first blush, this looks like an opportunity to force Schumer, because Jeffries is totally irrelevant as a person and a politician, into a humiliating surrender. Trump has signaled that he's willing to shut down the government. And OMB Director Russ Vought has ordered agencies to prepare to terminate employees for whom funding has lapsed; Trump Cancels Meeting With Schumer and Jeffries, Orders Mass Firings in Case of Shutdown. This would gut the federal workforce, something Trump has been trying to do since January. It would also lock in the $4 billion cut from USAID by Trump; see Once Again, the Trump Administration Snags a Win From SCOTUS on USAID Funding Case.
Both Speaker Johnson and Majority Leader Thune are making "hang tough" noises.
As for Schumer, he doesn't seem to have a lot of maneuver room.
Thune said in an interview that internal Democratic politics are pushing Schumer to play hardball. Schumer’s political base “was incredibly unforgiving” back in March during the last standoff, Thune said. “He got blown up for doing the right thing.”
Wyoming Republican John Barrasso on Fox News Sunday Briefing made the point that Schumer is trying to save his butt and that he's not trusted by his caucus (again, I'm suppressing a shocked face).
Barrasso on Fox: I believe is that if there is a prolonged shutdown, the president of the United States has an opportunity as well as an obligation to go after so much of the wasteful Washington spending and he's going to have the authority to do it.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) September 28, 2025
Barrasso on Fox: He’s toxic with his party right now. The Democrats are really in free fall. This is going to hurt them more than Republicans.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) September 28, 2025
M. Stanton Evans, the first leader of CPAC, was famous for saying, “We have two parties and only two. One is the evil party, and the other is the stupid party. I’m very proud to be a member of the stupid party. Occasionally, the two parties get together to do something that’s evil and stupid. That’s called bipartisanship.”
That is the danger here. Schumer is, in aviation terminology, out of airspeed, out of altitude, and out of ideas. The only people hurt by a shutdown will be the Democrat base. Bipartisanship demands letting Schumer save face by giving him the Obamacare subsidies, at least. I'm afraid that rather than stump breaking Schumer and crowing about it, they will let him have an exit ramp where he can declare victory.
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