The Ukrainian Army launched an attack into Russia's Kursk Oblast during the early hours of Tuesday. The attacking force seems to consist of about two brigades of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, totaling about 1500 to 2000 troops. The attack swiftly overran Russian positions, seized over 200 square miles of Russian territory, seized the gas pumping station that controls all Russian gas flows to Europe, and appears to have controlled the main Russian railway supply route for Russian forces in Ukraine.
U.S., Ukrainian and Russian officials all acknowledged the ongoing attack, which stunned Moscow and appeared to involve the use of armored fighting vehicles donated to Kyiv by the United States and its European partners — a development that drew no immediate objection from the Biden administration despite its past restrictions on such use of American weaponry.
The surprise assault on Kursk, about 330 miles south of Moscow, seemed designed to bring the war home to Russia, where many do not feel any direct impact of a conflict that has destroyed many Ukrainian cities and towns and displaced millions. It also may be intended to divert Russian troops from other locations along the front, where Ukraine’s military has steadily lost ground in recent months. Analysts suggested Kyiv could be trying to gain leverage for any future negotiations with the Kremlin.
While previous offensives into Russia were led by volunteer militant groups opposed to President Vladimir Putin but not formally affiliated with Ukraine’s Armed Forces, this attack appears to involve several thousand troops, including some from elite assault brigades equipped with U.S. and German vehicles and tanks. They crossed the border Tuesday from Sumy in northeastern Ukraine, according to Russian officials and pro-war military bloggers.
Biden's national security apparatus was caught flat-footed; perhaps that was why the Ukrainians achieved tactical and operational surprise. Putin was not happy.
Kirby states the US officials will be "reaching out to our Ukrainian counterparts to get a little better understanding" of the situation in Kursk Oblast, Russia.
He added that the US has not changed its policy of authorising Ukraine to use American-supplied weapons "to target imminent threats just across the border".
On Tuesday, 6 August, the Russians reported about Ukraine’s attempts to infiltrate into the territory of Kursk Oblast.
Russian propagandists and milbloggers are claiming that Ukrainian forces are in a border area. Russian ruler Vladimir Putin called the situation a "provocation".
Naturally, the situation is more than a little unclear. Neither the Russians nor Ukrainians have offered much,
Where Did The Ukrainians Get the Troops?
The bulk of the troops seem to have come from the Belarus-Ukraine border. Lukashenko withdrew his troops from the Ukrainian border on July 13. We're seeing Stryker Armored Fighting Vehicles and a mix of tanks on the Ukrainian side, indicating the presence of one of the mechanized brigades formed during the Spring of 2023. A safe guess is that Ukraine has allocated a reinforced brigade to the attack.
The white triangle symbol used by Ukrainian troops deployed to Kursk Oblast has been in use by the defenders of OC West since June 2024. These units were stationed near the border with Belarus. #UkrainianArmy pic.twitter.com/x1zbv9umHT
— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) August 8, 2024
How Did It Happen?
You don't give the Tsar unpleasant information. The invasion of Ukraine unfolded the way it did because the FSB directorate responsible for intelligence in Ukraine gave optimistic reports about the desire of Ukraine for an Anschluss and said the Ukrainian Army would not fight. According to Bloomberg, something similar happened this time.
Gerasimov and top officials "seemingly dismissed intelligence warnings that Ukrainian soldiers were gathering near the border with Russia’s western Kursk region as much as two weeks before they began the assault," Bloomberg said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was also not briefed on the troop buildup, the unnamed source reportedly told Bloomberg.
True or not true? It's hard to tell. There were no missile strikes or air strikes in the Ukrainian assembly areas, something you'd think the Russians would've attempted had they known an attack was being staged. On the other hand, the Ukrainians have enough air defense assets that they could've made those areas a tough target. My guess would be that if Ukrainian troops were spotted, they were assumed to be reinforcements for Ukrainian units fighting on the Russian border in Kharkiv Oblast. As I've noted in my updates, the Ukrainians made a lot of fuss about putting troops in this area after Kadyrov's Chechens briefly invaded Sumy Oblast; see Putin's War, Week 120. Zelensky Gets Security Agreement With the US and the Repo Man Comes for Russia – RedState. With a lot of other plausible excuses, you can bet no one wanted to be the guy to tell Putin, "Boss, I think we're about to be invaded."
Telegram channels insist that the massing of Ukrainian troops was known and reported.
11/ Veterans' Notes says that Russian commanders in the field are lying to the General Staff about the true state of manpower and reserves (likely another example of the Russian military's institutionalised lying, discussed in the thread below).https://t.co/og6uxqXf5e
— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) August 7, 2024
Line of Advance
NEW | Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers into Russia's Kursk Oblast amid continued mechanized offensive operations on Russian territory on August 7. 1/12 pic.twitter.com/KFbwOUTTto
— Critical Threats (@criticalthreats) August 8, 2024
If all of the Russian reports are 100% true, then Ukraine has captured up to 203 sq km of territory in about 30 hours
— Malcontent News (@MalcontentmentT) August 7, 2024
If pic.twitter.com/2fDjkOi4EI
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 8, 2024
Inside the Kremlin
These are some great shots of a grim Putin sitting at his von Stauffenberg table.
Hearing Gerasimov talk about the goal of “reaching Russia’s state border” was never on my bingo but here we go. Putin looks thrilled pic.twitter.com/zjp6D1P5cg
— Saint Javelin (@saintjavelin) August 7, 2024
Shortened clip just of khuylo’s face pic.twitter.com/S766ngKfzl
— OSINTNic (@OSINTNic) August 7, 2024
Putin on Ukrainian incursion into Russian border region of Kursk:
— Clash Report (@clashreport) August 7, 2024
It is a major provocation.
I'll hold meeting today with the heads of security agencies on the situation in the Kursk region. pic.twitter.com/ChZXMonLyH
Russia has accused the United Kingdom of the offensive in Russia's Kursk region, Russian media report.
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 8, 2024
It took them two whole days. They used to be quicker.
Russian MP Adalbi Shkhagoshev, a member of the State Duma Security Committee, said that
"Britain participated in all such… pic.twitter.com/mq3CtX7lcO
Of course, there are always the nukes.
Russian propagandist Mardan threatens a tactical nuclear strike on AFU soldiers in Kursk region.
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 7, 2024
That's because Kursk region is "an indigenous historical Russian core", he explains. Apparently different regions of Russia have different value for him. https://t.co/QaUBmUOtww pic.twitter.com/IeVyc3ZFvy
Objectives
This offensive has limited objectives. It is an embarrassment to the Russian government; this is the first time Russia has been invaded since Operation Barbarossa. Given Russia's recent history of invading its neighbors, it was time for Karma to make a house call. While the offensive has operational objectives like the primary rail line supplying Russian troops in Kharkiv and northern Luhansk, it will also force Russia to move troops from other sectors to try to stop the advance.
UPDATED the map by @MalcontentmentT of reported Ukrainian advances in Sudzha so you can see where the Ukrainian presence is in relation to Russian defensive lines and Russian GLOC for Task Group North utilized by Russian Railways and the ZHV. @MalcontentmentT and others have… pic.twitter.com/GoCrmfCqZn
— Intelschizo (@Schizointel) August 7, 2024
This thread gives a good rundown of the tactical options available.
The Sudzha axis sits one of the primary rail lines that goes to Belgorod which is the main logistics depot for Task Group North in Kharkiv. Having direct fire control over this rail line shutting it down. pic.twitter.com/lgmFv04Gnk
— Intelschizo (@Schizointel) August 7, 2024
The operation also seemed to be designed to bring Russia to the bargaining table with a reasonable set of expectations.
The Kursk offensive has put new pressure on Putin as Russian civilians have had to be evacuated under the same type of bombardment Ukrainians have endured for more than two years.
Ukrainian officials have asked Washington to let them to use long-range U.S. ATACMS missiles to hit airfields that Russia is using to retaliate against the incursion — a decision that, if approved, could allow Kyiv to hold a portion of Kursk for some time.
“This will give them the leverage they need for negotiations with Russia — this is what it’s all about,” the Zelensky adviser said.
Combat Operations
Sudzah LNG Facility
Ukrainian Armed Forces control the Sudzha gas metering station in Russia.
— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) August 7, 2024
Nearly 50% of all Russian gas exports to the European Union flow through this station. It is the only operational Russian gas pipeline supplying the European market. pic.twitter.com/lDbZ5AAaWq
Strykers in Russia
‼️ Civilian cars in Russia’s Kursk clear the way for Ukrainian “liberators” pic.twitter.com/nte48mPqQW
— Ukraine War Now ✙ (@uarealitynow) August 8, 2024
Destroyed Russian Reinforcement Convoy
Reports of a destroyed Russian column in Oktyabrskoe, near Rylsk, Kursk Special Operation Zone. pic.twitter.com/gfAMXNJUzr
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) August 8, 2024
Civilians Abandoned
Kursk Zone residents absolutely livid with the Russian authorities doing nothing to help them evacuate from their homes in light of advancing Ukrainian liberation forces
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) August 8, 2024
pic.twitter.com/Q330oNC0bG
Collateral Damage
Russian military reporter with State TV and Radio Broadcasting Company (VGTRK) Evgeny Poddubny is killed in Kursk oblast, according to multiple sources, including other pro-war reporters like Sladkov and Rybar. In 2017 he was awarded with the order "For Merit to the Fatherland". pic.twitter.com/rIU1Vip4zA
— Mark Krutov (@kromark) August 7, 2024
What's Next
Ukraine probably has a week where it can run wild before Russia can mass sufficient forces, in quantity and quality, to stop them. Then Ukraine will have to make a decision to either dig in and hold the gains and use that as a bargaining chip to get a Russian withdrawal or pull back.
Russia's Army is totally committed in Ukraine, and any major shift of forces will create a weakness somewhere. The current situation maps, if accurate, indicate that the Russian forces that attacked Kharkiv in March can no longer be supplied because the railway lines in Kursk Oblast are cut.
Ukraine's challenge is to convert a tactical and operational victory into something that has strategic impact.
Russia has been knocked back on its heels, and Putin has been made to look rather ridiculous. He's not going to take that lying down because if the Tsar is not omnipotent, well, he's not the Tsar. It is hard to see how Gerasimov and most of the Russian General Staff survive this fiasco.
The episode has also demonstrated a degree of operational brilliance that no one expected. So far, the Ukrainians have seemed as mired in Soviet-era tactics as the Russians. Last summer's offensive failed because high-value equipment was spread among the good old boy network instead of consolidated. The tactical flexibility we've seen over the last three days has starkly contrasted with what we've grown accustomed to. If this doesn't result in a fiasco, and war is nothing if not unpredictable, the Ukrainians have shown their tutors in NATO that they've learned their lessons well.
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