Newest Quinnipiac National Poll Show Major Surprises in the Democrat Primary


While everyone’s attention is focused on the Democrat primary in New Hampshire tomorrow night, a new poll shows some significant changes that upend much of the conventional wisdom about the shape of the upcoming contests.


The top line

Notice who has slipped into third place. Ever since Bloomberg entered the race, I’ve said his strategy is to, in poker parlance, buy the pot. Sanders’s support is pretty well locked in an not going anywhere. He’s not going to lose a lot of votes but he’s also damned close to his ceiling. Bloomberg has yet to stand on a debate stage or, as far as I can tell, talk to single potential voter, but he doesn’t have to. Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar are competing for the 75% of the field that is not-Bernie. All he has to do is buy feel-good ads and let his competition tear one another to bloody rags and ride in on Super Tuesday after the rest have convinced America that they are not electable.

Second data point. Using Quinnipiac national polls in a series we can see the downward movement in Biden’s campaign.

The good news is that he still has more downward mobility.

Biden may or may not have a South Carolina firewall…

One of Biden’s self proclaimed selling points is that he is beloved of black voters. In fact, last Friday night he and billionaire dilettante Tom Steyer got in a heated argument of who had the most black friends:


Mike Bloomberg is polling nearly as strong among black voters as is Biden. In fact, an old white bolshevik like Sanders isn’t doing all that bad. When you put it side by side with the January 28 Quinnipiac, you can see the total collapse of the myth of Biden’s popularity with black voters:

Biden 52

Sanders 15

Bloomberg 8

Warren 7

Buttigieg 0

Head-to-head match ups are also in the poll. This is the Stage V TDS point of view:

I don’t think it is all that useful to argue these kinds of match-ups long before the Democrat candidates are given a meaningful stress test. But I think Ryan Saavedra is correct.


Trump’s approval here is 6 points lower than Gallup…and the sample is +6 Democrat. One also has to question the sanity of any poll that shows Bernie Sanders breaking 50% and being a better general election candidate than Klobuchar. Realistically, I think we can say that Trump’s competition here is going to be someone like Amy Klobuchar, who will be difficult for Trump to attack without hurting himself, or Michael Bloomberg, who has more money than the Almighty and match Trump at better than dollar-for-dollar in advertising and organization money.

On the whole, this paints a very grim future for both Biden and Warren. Both are hemorrhaging voters. Black voters are leaving Biden for Bloomberg. If Warren and Biden come in fourth and fifth in New Hampshire tomorrow night they will both be nearly broke by the time Super Tuesday rolls around. The question is whether Klobuchar or Buttigieg can fund and build a campaign fast enough to hold off Bloomberg.




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