Let’s get the topline:
Trump 34, Cruz 28, Carson 9, Rubio 5, Christie 5, Kasich 4, Bush 4, Unsure 3, Paul 3, Huckabee 2, Fiorina 1, Santorum 0.
Earlier today, Dan McLaughlin reported on the highly respected Des Moines Register poll which had this as a result:
Cruz 25, Trump 22, Rubio 12, Carson 11, Bush 4, Paul 5, Christie 3, Huckabee 3, Kasich 2, Fiorina 2, Santorum 1
The polling for Iowa looks like this:
The margin of error is 5 points but even so this doesn’t look right. Let me be blunt, Either this poll is really screwed up, and I mean f***ed up like a soup sandwich, or a serious sea change has taken place in Iowa.
If this is accurate, it reflects a huge movement of support to Trump and basic collapse of Rubio. It is really hard to square the Trump surge with anything that has happened in the campaign. The birther attack on Cruz would have been expected to weaken Cruz, not necessarily strengthen Trump. And Cruz’s numbers in this poll are very much in sync with previous polls. Likewise, there is no evidence the attacks on Rubio have caused a flight of supporters. In addition, the attacks on Rubio would not be expected to generate Trump voters.
At the moment, this is a poll that is outside the trend shown by everyone else. Whether they are savants or imbeciles will become apparent very soon.